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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 181932

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
232 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Another hot and humid day is in progress across the Missouri
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas. A cumulus field has become
established across the eastern Ozarks, but radar is quiet. A
isolated brief shower will be possible late this afternoon over
the far eastern Ozarks, however upper level dry air and weak
subsidence should prevent anything substantial from developing.

After another warm and muggy night, another hot day is on tap for
Friday. No appreciable changes are expected to temperatures, dew 
points, and heat indices. Winds will be slightly lighter as 
pressure gradients relax. Overall, highs will be in the lower to 
middle 90s with heat indices in the 100 to 110 degree range.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Hot and humid conditions will continue into Saturday as an upper
level ridge remains established over the region. Short wave energy
will then dive southeast into the Great Lakes region on Sunday
and correspondingly drive a cold front south through the Missouri

This front will bring the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms from Sunday into Monday. Temperatures on Sunday 
should be at least slightly cooler with the passing front and the 
potential for thunderstorms. We have therefore left the heat 
headlines intact with an end time of Saturday evening. We will 
continue to evaluate the situation as a later arriving front may 
necessitate extension of heat headlines over at least portions of 
the area.

A cooler and drier air mass will then filter into the region early
next work week with highs falling back into the 80s. Low
temperatures in the lower to middle 60s are expected, with upper
50s not out of the question across the eastern Ozarks.
Temperatures may warm a few degrees by the middle of next week,
but will remain below normal. Relief is on the way!


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

VFR conditions will continue through Friday morning. Surface winds
will be gusty out of the southwest this afternoon with gusts over
25 mph expected.

Surface winds will become a bit lighter tonight and on Friday,
however low level wind shear conditions can be expected late
tonight and early Friday morning.


MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ082-083-090>092-

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-



SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann