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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 241728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1228 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

A series of subtle shortwaves is helping to spark showers and a 
few thunderstorms. One wave is exiting off to the northeast over 
central MO while another is moving northeast from eastern OK and 
northwest AR. Went close to the HRRR blended with global models 
for precip chances and timing today. Like yesterday, there could 
be enough instability for isolated brief stronger storms during 
peak heating with close to 1000 j/kg mucape and some pockets of 
surface based instability possible. Vertical 0-6km shear of 35kts
would support storm organization. For our area the better chances
for stronger storms would likely be the eastern cwfa this 
afternoon as the shortwave tracks through that area. 

Fog is also concern attm with some dense fog over the western cwfa
where winds are light and have mix of radiation and stratus build
down fog. This should slowly lift to a lower overcast late this
morning. Also have fog in the forecast for late tonight favoring 
the northern half of the cwfa with the same basic meteorological 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Thursday: Will have the overall highest rain chances over the
southern cwfa associated with an upper level low tracking across
the south central CONUS through the lower MS Vly couple with a
northern stream shortwave moving the Midwest. Not looking like
there will be high impact weather with this system for us. 

Friday: Quiet. A quick moving zonal flow pattern sets up late in 
the week and early into next week. Sfc high pressure moves quickly
through Friday.

Saturday: A compact but fairly strong shortwave will from the 
Plains into the Midwest Saturday with a trailing sfc front moving 
through our region. Will have a brief period of showers/maybe some
isolated thunderstorms but the warm sector will be somewhat 
capped for a time limiting overall chances. Winds will be gusty 
with this system with some sfc gusts of 30-40 mph possible.

Sunday: Looks quiet with sfc high pressure becoming centered near
the area by 12z/7am before shifting east. 

Monday-Tuesday: Another front looks to move into the area early
next week, potentially become quasi stationary over the central
Plans into southern MO/northern AR. Will need to watch for the
potential for periods of heavier rain during this time depending 
on where the frontal zone sets up. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor radar trends through this afternoon and into the
evening. Especially in Branson, where quite a bit more rain is
coming across that airfield. Springfield and Joplin may not
receive a whole lot more rain, however, low ceilings and some
reduced visibilities will continue this afternoon.  

An upper level storm system was still spinning southwest of the
Ozarks, which will continue to impact aviation weather into
tonight and tomorrow in the form of precipitation and cloud cover. 

Surface winds should remain light and variable in most locations. 

Safe Travels.