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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 230825

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
325 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing over far southern Missouri
this morning as low level baroclinicity was positioned across the
area. This feature will continue to be a focus for showers and
thunderstorms throughout today. Not all areas will receive rain,
however, locations that do receive rain could experience some
decent rates as precipitable water values are ranging from 1.6 to
1.8 inches. 

We considered a flash flood watch, however,confidence is not high
enough that one is needed. Monitoring precipitation trends and
localized pockets of heavy rain will be needed through the day. 

Clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s today. 

Showers and thunderstorms will persist through tonight as well.
Overnight lows in the 70s are expected. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

The frontal system will linger across the region as we head into
Saturday. This will force us to keep precipitation chances going
through Saturday. Perhaps a better coverage of rainfall will
occur Saturday evening and night, as an upper level disturbance
approaches from the west. 

A 2nd speed max arrives during the day on Sunday, bringing another
shot of rainfall. Amounts could begin to accumulate pretty high in
some areas as we head into the new work week since rain looks to
continue impacting the region through Tuesday morning. 

Medium range models has continental air spreading through the
Ozarks Tuesday, bringing an end to the rain chances Tuesday and

There are some early indications that the first part of Labor Day
Weekend could be active, although this could change since we're
still several day out. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Showers and storms will move across the region overnight and into
the early morning. Where storms move across the area MVFR to IFR
flight conditions may occur. Visibilities will occasionally fall 
to MVFR especially where rain and storms move over area terminals.
Surface winds will be light overall. Some improvement will occur 
Friday afternoon but VFR ceilings will remain. 




LONG TERM...Cramer