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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 181913

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
213 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Fog dissipated by mid to late morning and stratus has also eroded
with cumulus field having developed in it's place. Some better
instability out east led to some shower developement, but those
are about done. Additional convection with the next wave was
located out in Kansas and will be the main focus for tonight and

Additional convection will be possible in the long term later this
weekend into early next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

For tonight, the shortwave across Kansas will track east into the
area with convection eventually shifting east across the area
later this evening into the overnight hours. Fairly high moisture
values from 1.5 to 1.8 in. as the shortwave moves in. Best
instability will remain west and then south of the area tonight,
so the main severe risk will be west of the area, possibly moving
into the far western CWA with hail to the size of quarters and
winds up to 60 mph possible. The storm system will be tracking
across the area on Wednesday with the upper wave and surface
front. Instability may be enough over the eastern Ozarks during
the afternoon for some severe storms to redevelop with large hail
and damaging wind the main risks. Heavy rain will also be possible
given the continued high moisture content.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

The storms should end from northwest to southeast on Wednesday
night with the main trough shifting east of the area. Upper ridge
will be building into the area on Thursday and Friday, with much
warmer air into the area by Friday. Highs on Friday should reach
the lower 90s with heat index values from 95 to 103 as dewpoints
rise back into the 70s.

More of a southwesterly flow aloft will then set up over the
weekend as a deeper trough will be to our west. More showers and
storms will be possible as energy moves into the area ahead of the
main trough late in the weekend, with the main trough eventually
pushing into the area early next week. Additional heavy rain will
be possible with this system and we may need to keep a further eye
on the hydro situation.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Fog and stratus breaking up late this morning. Some scattered
showers have developed in the eastern Ozarks east of the terminals
with the clearing stratus and fog. Attention turns to the west and
convection developing west of the area. This should move into the
area late tonight into Wednesday morning. The showers and
thunderstorms will bring MVFR conditions to the area and
potentially brief periods of IFR, generally after 04z.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg