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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 200939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

Upper level short wave energy will quickly lift northeast from
eastern Kansas into the western Great Lakes today. We will remain
in the dry slot region of this departing energy which keeps the 
door open for drizzle/freezing drizzle into this morning.
Inspection of low level moisture profiles indicates that moisture 
will remain deep enough to support drizzle through 15Z. However, 
upward omega in the lowest 1.5 km of the atmosphere will really 
begin to decrease after 12Z. Thus, drizzle will become more patchy
in nature as we head into the 12-15Z time frame. We will also 
have to keep an eye out for fog from now through this time period
with short term models trending towards lower visibilities.

The big question early this morning will be temperatures.
Temperatures from around Pittsburg, Kansas to Buffalo to Rolla,
Missouri are still in the 30-33 degree range as of 3 AM. There are
also still smaller pockets of 31-32 degree temperatures across
southern Missouri. We believe that temperatures between now and 
6 AM will warm a degree or two, thus the current plan is to let 
the Winter Weather Advisory expire then. We will certainly pay 
close attention to temperature and drizzle coverage trends for the
possibility of an extension.

Once we get to later this morning, all precipitation should have
ended. Clouds will struggle to clear today as low level moisture
(925-850 mb layer) will remain rather prevalent. We therefore 
went on the cool side regarding temperatures with highs over most 
areas in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Areas of south-
central Missouri should manage to warm into the lower and middle 

Dry weather should then continue into tonight as weak high
pressure slides southeast through the Ohio Valley region. There is
some concern for fog potential given the light winds and recent
moisture, however it appears that skies will remain mostly cloudy
over most areas due to high level clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

Upper level southwesterly flow will persist into Thursday with a
frontal boundary sharpening up near or south of the I-20 corridor.
Weak isentropic upglide in combination with the right-entrance
region of an upper level jet streak may be enough for a few
showers across south-central Missouri late Thursday and especially
Thursday night.

Chances for rain will then spread north and increase on Friday and
Friday night as that front begins to lift north ahead of
developing low pressure across the Texas Panhandle. Temperatures
Thursday and Friday will be near normal with highs ranging from
the middle 40s to the lower 50s.

Saturday then looks mild and wet as that low pressure tracks out 
across the central Plains and then hooks into the southern Great 
Lakes Saturday night. This system looks like a windy one with
global models depicting a rather impressive surface low and 
pressure gradients. Wind Advisory potential is certainly there if 
this scenario unfolds.

We have maintained chances for thunderstorms from Friday night 
into Saturday night. There is a limited potential for severe 
thunderstorms given that this system looks rather dynamic (strong 
wind shear) and our area will be in the warm sector. The key for 
severe potential will be how much instability is present. 

We will also be inserting a limited flooding risk into the 
Hazardous Weather Outlook for south-central Missouri given 
saturated ground conditions and what should be a favorable storm 
track for rainfall amounts of 1" or greater.

Depending on the eventual track of the low, there will be a lower
end chance for some wrap-around snow across southeastern Kansas
and west-central Missouri as we head into later Saturday night.

The weather then looks fairly quiet for the Sunday/Monday
time frame with temperatures pretty close to normal. Global 
models then depict the potential for a decent cold front moving 
through next Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1219 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

IFR and LIFR conditions will persist overnight due to low clouds
and areas of drizzle.

The drizzle will end and ceilings will begin to improve Wednesday
morning. VFR is expected to return by early to mid-afternoon,
however questions still remain regarding exact timing.

Surface winds will gradually veer around from the southeast to the
west through Wednesday.


MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for 

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for 



SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann