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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 231956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
256 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Surface high pressure was building into the region this afternoon, as 
the cold front had moved well south into Arkansas. This high will
remain overhead this evening before shifting east after midnight 
tonight. This will allow a return to southerly flow to the area 
late tonight, especially over the western counties. Coolest 
temperatures tonight will be over the eastern Ozarks with lows in 
the middle 50s, while the southerly flow across the west will keep
readings in the low to mid 60s for overnight lows.

On Tuesday low level moisture return commences, spreading west to 
east during the day as dewpoints return back into the 60s from 
highway 65 west. A subtle shortwave along with an upper level jet 
will provide enough lift to spread showers/storms back into at least 
southwest Missouri during the mid to late morning hours and into 
the afternoon. At this point instability looks rather meager at 
least during the day Tuesday. Look for highs in the 70s to near

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Tuesday night, a more significant trough digs across the Northern 
Plains pushing a cold front southward, arriving in northern Missouri 
after midnight and pushing towards central Missouri by daybreak, 
then through the area Wednesday. The potential exists for some 
marginally severe storms during this time frame, albeit better 
chances appear to lie well north of the region where greatest lift 
will be co-located with shear and instability.

The front looks to move back north as a warm front Thursday into 
Friday as low/mid level winds become more southwesterly with time.
Although not wash out days, unsettled weather looks possible Friday 
into the weekend with disturbances moving into the area from the 
west and interacting with another frontal boundary dropping into the 
area from the northwest. Temperatures will remain near or slightly 
above average from mid week onward.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

High pressure was settling into the region this afternoon. outside
of some lower ceilings along the Arkansas border to begin the 
period will see clear to clearing skies this afternoon. Expect VFR
fight conditions tonight through 12Z, but after 12Z will have to 
watch for the possibility of showers/storms working there way back
into southwest Missouri.




SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding