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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 251750

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1250 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Weather through tonight will be driven by remnants of the MCS
currently over central KS and the parent shortwave.

Impressive looking bowing segment currently N/NW of Wichita is
expected to continue following the instability gradient to the SE,
putting SE KS and far SW MO in the path with arrival around
sunrise. Think there is a low end isolated damaging wind threat, 
but overall it should be gradually weakening and hasn't produced 
substantial wind reports recently.

Looking toward the rest of the day, outflow associated with
morning convection move along the SW periphery of the CWA should
lead to additional convection across much of the rest of the area.
There is a low end, isolated severe threat with that if
sufficient instability can develop, mainly over southwestern
portions of the CWA. Instability should be too limited for much 
of a hail threat, but some damaging wind gusts are possible. Of
course, heavy rain is a threat and any training precipitation
could result in flash flooding. Cloud cover and precip should 
continue the trend of temperatures being well below normal with 
highs around 80 today.

Shortwave energy moving through this evening and tonight will lead
to continued precipitation that will diminish from W to E. Could
see some excessive rainfall, so will keep the limited flash flood
potential in the HWO/EHWO.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Southerly flow and clearing skies will lead to near normal
temperatures on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Increasing surface dew points will combine with those temps to
give max heat indices from the upper 80s east to near 100 west.
The resulting buildup of instability will bring a risk for severe
thunderstorms Monday evening into Monday night as a synoptically
well support cold front moves through. Greatest severe threat is
over the NW half of the CWA, where SPC has a day 2 slight risk. 

Behind the front there will be some low end precip chances, mainly
across the south, but drier weather than what we have been seeing
the last few days is certainly favored. Temperatures will drop
back below normal on Tuesday and continue through the rest of the
forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Flight conditions have largely become MVFR this afternoon across 
the southwest Missouri terminals. The low-level cloudiness and 
reduced visibility have been due, in large part, to a band of 
showers entering the region from eastern Kansas.

As the band of showers gradually decays and moves eastward, a
return to VFR ceilings can be anticipated to all southwest
Missouri terminals by 00z. It should be noted, however, that
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist across
the eastern Ozarks this afternoon and into the evening where the
better instability lies.

Surface winds through this TAF period shall remain from the SE
between 5 and 10 kts.

One finer detail that still needs to be better resolved is the
possibility for patchy fog around 12z tomorrow morning. This seems
like a good possibility as much warmer air begins to advect across
southwest Missouri tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.