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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 190939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
439 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

An upper level low is currently over the area early this morning
as surface low pressure is moving off to the east. There will be 
some lift that spreads across there area today but overall the 
moisture will be limited. Therefore, we are not expecting any 
measurable rain this morning but cannot rule out some sprinkles. 

Surface high pressure will build across the Plains today resulting 
in the pressure gradient tightening with the nearby surface low. 
Gusty northerly winds will develop today up to 40 mph occurring at
times, with the strongest winds expected along and east of 
Highway 65. Will have to watch how deep we can mix today as its 
not out of the question that potions of the eastern Ozarks could 
approach Wind Advisory levels, but at this time think gusts should
remain just below criteria.

Cooler conditions will occur today and tonight as highs warm into
the middle 50s to the lower 60s this afternoon. High pressure will
start to move east into the area overnight tonight into Saturday 
with clear skies and decreasing winds. Lows tonight will drop 
into the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Valleys and wind sheltered
areas could see lows fall into the middle 30s and some patchy 
frost may be able to develop tonight into early Saturday morning. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

An upper level ridge will build east across the Plains on Saturday
and will move over the area Sunday into early next week. Warmer
conditions will spread back into the area, as highs warm into the
upper 60s to lower 70s Saturday and then the upper 70s into the 
lower 80s Sunday and Monday. 

An upper level disturbance will track out of the Central Plains
into northern Missouri Sunday night into Monday. A few showers and
storms may be possible with this feature, but overall the better
lift should remain north of the area. 

An upper level trough will dig south across the West Coast this 
weekend and into the southwestern U.S. early next week. The 
trough will then slowly track east next week. A more active 
pattern will setup through much of the week in southwest flow 
aloft with intermittent chances for showers and thunderstorms. It 
will not be a complete wash out by any means, but with the trough
to the southwest showers and storms will be possible every day. 
At this time do not see a signal for widespread heavy rainfall. 

Mild conditions can be expected each day next week as highs warm
into the 70s with lows in the 50s. 


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Gusty northerly winds will occur this morning and afternoon. Winds
will then weaken this evening and tonight as surface high pressure 
moves into the region. VFR conditions are expected today and