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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 201953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
253 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Showers and isolated storms were spreading northward across the 
Ozarks the afternoon. This was occurring as the northern edges of
the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda was moving across the
southern plains. Precipitable water values were rather high with
from 1.7 to 1.9 inches across the area and continued moisture
advection expected. 

This activity is expected to continue into this evening though
coverage should less towards the overnight hours. The cloud cover
and rainfall will help keep temperatures in check overnight and 
into Saturday with lows around 70 degrees and afternoon highs 
Saturday in the low 80s. 

Moisture advection will continue Saturday with showers and 
scattered storms throughout the day. This will occur as a cold
front begins to make its way across the plains and towards the

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

As the cold front moves into eastern kansas and northern 
Missouri, increasing lift will act to enhance lift and the 
potential for heavy rainfall and also some strong to severe 

Initially, as the front approaches overnight Saturday into Sunday
morning, the best potential for severe weather will be across the
far northwestern portions of the area from Nevada to Versallies 
and north. This area may also see some training of storms which
could lead to isolated flooding. 

The front will move through the region on Sunday and bring
continued potential for strong to severe storms and flooding as 
moisture advection will continue ahead of the front. We decided 
to hold off on and flood headlines as the best axis for heavy 
rainfall appeared to be across northern portions of Missouri and 
eastern Kansas based on the latest models. This will be re- 
evaluated over the next few models runs. Showers and storms will 
continue Sunday night into Monday morning before finally exiting 
the region. 

Temperatures next week will be near normal for this time of year
with slight rain chances nearly each day. Overall, it appears to
be a fairly wet period in store the the Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas, but the cooler temperatures will be welcome. 


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

For the 12z TAFS...Showers/storms with the tropical remnants now
shifting north into central AR and should be affecting the TAF
sites by late morning or towards midday. Expecting more numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms during the afternoon hours with
diminishing echoes by the evening. Expecting mostly VFR and MVFR
conditions through the period. Winds will be gusty during the late
morning through the afternoon.