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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

                            
000
FXUS63 KSGF 220449
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1149 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Another somewhat complex forecast scenario for tonight into 
Saturday. Biggest question/concern is on MCS potential again 
tonight into Saturday, with the question of where it will track.

Current MCS moving through the forecast area will exit the area by 
early evening, with a continued threat for some severe wind gusts. 
Once this complex exits it appears the evening will be quiet. 

For tonight, models are showing slight height rises aloft as frontal 
boundary extends from south central Kansas into northern Missouri. 
18Z SGF special sounding shows quite a cap in place and models 
suggest these warmer temperatures aloft remain in place across the 
area through the overnight hours. Majority of CAMS support convection
developing along the Iowa/Missouri border and diving southeast. 
Only the NAMNEST and NMMB being outliers showing MCS activity 
through the heart of the forecast area, which appears to be a low 
probability of occurrence. Will keep most areas dry tonight, with
probabilities late tonight across portions of central Missouri.

It will be a warm and muggy night tonight with lows just in the 
lower to even mid 70s. Clouds maybe problematic with blow off from 
today's convection and any overnight convection to our west and 
north.

A continued hot and humid day is in store for Saturday. As it stands 
now it looks to mainly dry. However, depending on any morning MCS 
activity across the north and northeast will affect expected high 
temperatures as well. For now will trends towards the drier and 
warmer scenario with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat 
index values in the mid and upper 90s and perhaps approaching 100.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

For Saturday night southwest upper flow establishes itself over the 
area with an approaching trough. Convection over Kansas is expected 
to congeal into an MCS and track into the forecast area Saturday 
night with heavy rainfall and possible strong to severe 
thunderstorms as well. The severe threat appears greatest over 
southeast Kansas and far western Missouri.

This pattern remains in place all the way through early Monday with 
very active weather continuing. Southwest upper flow remains in 
place as the upper trough approaches the area. The gulf remains wide 
open, with precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2 inches remaining in 
place through the entire period. Expect several rounds of showers 
and thunderstorms into Monday, with heavy rain likely and a renewed 
threat of flooding and flash flooding. Certainly cannot rule out 
some severer weather as well during the period.

The trough axis looks to finally push east of the area later Monday 
night, with the summer time ridge across the southern conus 
expanding northward through the end of the week. As a result, we can 
expect a dry period along with warm and humid conditions, more 
reminiscent of summer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR to start, though some MVFR ceilings may
be possible for a brief time at KJLN toward 12z. A ridge aloft and
capping will keep tstms activity off tot he west and north of the
area early in the taf period. Better chances for showers/tstms
will develop late as the cap weakens as an upper level disturbance
approaches from the southwest. Progged wind fields support a 
mention of llws early in the period with moderate gusty sfc winds 
by late morning and afternoon (after 14z). 

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA