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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 241938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
238 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Update: 18z KSGF sounding indicated a weak cap, but radar and
satellite imagery increasing shows evidence of weakening
inhibition with a small uptick in convective towers and isolated 
radar returns. This is in line with recent HRRR guidance. In 
general HRRR trends have been indicating a slightly later onset 
time of more widespread convection versus runs from this morning, 
however, the eastern cwfa should see scattered convection. 
Shear/instability profiles (nearly 1000 j/kg mlcape and 50kts 
0-6km bulk shear) are supportive of supercells with large hail the
main concern. A localized wind risk is also possible. A veered 
low level wind profile should limit the overall tornado threat

The front is expected to shift east of the area this evening, so
expecting a a brief window for severe storms in our area. 

After some brief clearing, low clouds should moves south on the
backside of the system with some drizzle expected late tonight and
Monday morning, especially in the northeast quarter of the cwfa.
Cloud will likely hold on into Monday night as well

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) 
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Tuesday: A ridge of high pressure will nose south form the Midwest
with finally some clearing expected Tuesday with seasonable

Wednesday: South winds will become gusty with warm weather as the
sfc high moves off and a large upper ridge builds over the central

Thursday-Friday-Saturday: The upper ridge flattens out and shifts
east as the southern branch of an upper level split flow pattern 
becomes the main player in our weather. Moisture will spread north
in the persistent strong south low level flow on Thursday. By late
in the weak the surface pattern becomes more active with a wave of
low pressure likely to move through supported by a shortwave 
moving through the central Rockies into the Plains. Decent 
agreement with ECMWF and GFS in moving a sfc low through eastern 
KS and MO with a trailing cold front Fri night. 

Sunday: Guidance differs by this time on how far south the front 
will get. The GFS is more active with another sfc wave moving
through the southern CONUS while the ECMWF is dry. Forecast
reflects a blend of guidance. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A cold front will move through the taf sites
region early in the period. A mix of ceiling heights is occurring
ahead of the front which is now about 50 miles west of KJLN.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
the next couple of hours affecting KSGF and KBBG. A brief period
of VFR conditions is expected immediately behind the front before
lower clouds (MVFR/IFR ceilings) move south into the area.