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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

                            
000
FXUS63 KSGF 180800
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Hot conditions are again expected today as that upper level ridge
holds strong over the lower and middle Mississippi Valley regions.
See no reason to stray too far from persistence for high
temperatures given 850 mb temperatures of 19-21 Celsius and
similar mixing heights. Highs will once again be in the lower to
middle 90s. Record high temperatures will again be approached 
over a few locations (see the Climate section below).

An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon
as convective temperatures are reached. The best potential today
may be along and west of the U.S. 65 corridor where precipitable
water values and mid-level relative humidities will be a bit more
favorable for updraft growth. Regardless, most locations will not
see rain today.

Any storms that develop should dissipate quickly this evening due
to the loss of daytime heating. Low temperatures will once again
range from the middle 60s to lower 70s, with the coolest readings
occurring over the eastern Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

The upper level ridge will hold for one more day with hot 
conditions again expected for Thursday. We may again see an 
isolated storm or two across the region, but most areas will 
remain dry.

The big changes start on Friday as an upper level trough moves
east across the Rockies. As this occurs, a tropical disturbance 
will drift north across the lower Mississippi Valley and will
eventually be absorbed on the eastern flank of that incoming 
trough Friday night or Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are therefore expected Friday and Saturday with 
temperatures much cooler with the expected cloud cover and rain.
Highs may struggle to reach 80 over some areas.

As that trough continues to approach, a cold front will eventually
make it south into the region either Saturday night or Sunday. It
is tough to say at this point how far south the front will make
it. Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms will remain a good 
bet into Sunday. Temperatures should be seasonable to finish out 
the weekend with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

We will have to watch for heavy rainfall potential from Friday
through the weekend given the potential slow moving sources of 
synoptic scale lift as well as precipitable water values creeping
up towards two inches. It is too soon to pin down amounts and 
where the heaviest rainfall may occur. We will continue to 
mention a Limited Risk for flooding in the Hazardous Weather 
Outlook.

Model consensus early next work week is rather poor, especially
regarding the placement of that front. The GFS keeps it in close
enough proximity to keep good chances for showers and
thunderstorms going. The ECMWF gets it far enough south to keep 
us mostly dry while the Canadian model lifts it north of the 
region. We have kept PoPs in the 20-30% range until we can get a 
better feel for the setup. Temperatures early next week should be 
near or slightly above normal, but a lot will depend on the 
location of that front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

With an upper level ridge over the region, VFR conditions are 
expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will remain light from 
the south as a lee side trough gradually deepens over the eastern 
Rockies. There is a slight chance of some isolated showers and 
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, but most locations will remain 
dry.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

                 Today      Thursday
Springfield     94/1960      96/1954
Joplin          96/1952      98/1954
West Plains     96/1972      97/1954
Rolla/Vichy     95/1953     100/1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Titus
CLIMATE...Schaumann