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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 141152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
652 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

As an area of high pressure slides off to the east this morning,
strong warm air advection will allow moisture to funnel into the 
region. Current CAM trends show a dying complex of showers and 
thunderstorms across central Kansas moving slowly to the east this
morning. For this reason, we are running lower PoPs through the 
early morning hours across the western portion of the CWA. If this
cluster is able to sustain activity, it will transition across 
central Missouri region through the mid morning hours.

Temperatures will begin a trend upwards with the return of the
warmer and moist airmass to region. Expect highs in the upper 70s
on Friday with plenty of dry time through the afternoon before 
another chance for rain returns to region by late Friday night as 
as a complex of showers and thunderstorms across the High Plains 
will slowly track towards the region. However, given the return of
an unstable and moist airmass, there is an marginal severe risk 
as sufficient elevated instability and shear could support a hail
risk. Additionally, thunderstorms will be supported by a strong 
LLJ of 40-45 knots stationed over the region. The CAM models do 
not depict how this complex will evolve through overnight hours, 
and will need to be evaluated further today.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

By Saturday a zonal upper level flow will setup for a repetitive 
pattern for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. 
Several waves of energy will move along this flow pattern. The 
focus for showers and thunderstorms Saturday will be in relation 
to the dying MCS and a resulting MCV over the region. The 
potential for redevelopment will be focused along Saturday 
mornings outflow boundary and the MCV. As a result, a MCS will
transition across the CWA late Saturday into Sunday. Given the 
strong amount of instability and adequate shear values, there 
will be a hail and wind risk late Saturday into Sunday for much of
the area. 

The repetitive nature of these systems may result in a heavy
rainfall setup through this weekend into early next week as any 
storms will be efficient rainfall producers with PWAT values 
ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches. However, given that the exact 
track and location of when and where this rainfall may occur, the
confidence is lower on exact flooding potential concerns. It 
should be noted though, this pattern will be supportive for any 
given location to receive locally heavy rainfall despite QPF 
values generally in the 2 to 4 inch region over the next week. An 
additional wave of energy will bring another chance for showers 
and thunderstorms to the region by Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

Temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 80s across the 
region through the middle of next week. Medium range model 
guidance suggest this pattern to potentially break down towards 
late next week when northwesterly flow may return to the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

A band of light to occasionally moderate rain will move across 
the region this morning. Ceilings and visibilities will remain VFR
however. High broken to overcast will remain through the day 
behind the rain with additional showers and storms expected late 
tonight and into Saturday morning. Where storms occur, flight 
conditions may fall to MVFR.