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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 180921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
321 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

Mid level ridging along with a Canadian surface high nosing into the 
region will make for a quiet but cold period through tonight. The 
Center of the surface high remains across the Dakota's today, so 
will continue to see a northerly wind at 5 to 10 mph. This, with 
high temperatures only expected to range from the lower 30s over 
central Missouri, to near 40 over far south central Missouri will 
make it feel even colder. Should see some sunshine today, especially 
across far southern Missouri.

The center of the high slides into the Upper Mississippi River 
Valley Region tonight, with winds coming around to a more easterly 
Direction. Under mainly partly cloudy skies lows will drop into the 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

The surface high continues to slide east on Tuesday as shortwave 
energy digs into the desert southwest with southwest flow aloft. 
Most of the day Tuesday looks dry, however a developing low level 
jet from Louisiana and Arkansas will push moisture northward into 
the region by late afternoon. Precipitation looks to spread into the 
area from the south after 18Z, in the form of a mix of rain and snow 
as the warm nose looks to remain south of the Arkansas border.

The shortwave is expected to eject out of the desert southwest 
towards the area Tuesday night, with the low level jet/warm 
advection pushing a warm nose into the area. First forecast 
challenge will be how quickly and far north the warm nose will get 
as we head through the night. At this point both the NAM and GFS 
indicate much of the area will be influenced by this warm air 
aloft, more so across the southeastern half of the forecast area 
where complete melting of the hydrometeors is expected. Thus would
expect any mix to change over to rain/freezing rain depending on 
surface temperatures, while the far northern and western counties 
would see more sleet/snow. The second challenge will be surface 
temperatures. NAM is the colder of the solutions in keeping 
temperatures around freezing across far southern Missouri and 
below freezing further north, where as GFS has slowly rising 
temperatures throughout the night, effectively limiting icing 
potential. Prefer the colder solution with temperatures at or 
below freezing. Thus current expectations are for a tenth of an 
inch or less of ice accretion and and inch or two of snow. Having 
said that, these uncertain details will have to be discerned with 
future model runs and given this our forecast confidence remains 
low to medium on exact ice and snow amounts and changes will be 
forthcoming with subsequent forecasts.

Forecast soundings continue to indicate a mid level dry slot moving 
in after midnight which will likely taper things off to drizzle or 
freezing drizzle depending on surface temperatures.

The drizzle/freezing drizzle could last into the early morning hours 
Wednesday before the entire system lifts northeast away from the 
area. Surface High pressure then builds across the region later 
Wednesday all the way through the first half of Thursday, before 
another weak system lifts through the southwest flow aloft bringing 
a chance of rain or snow to the area, mainly Thursday night.

Medium rage models continue to show a more significant system 
possible for this weekend, with early indications of more rain than 
wintry precipitation, but still a long ways out.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Stratus deck beginning to swing southeast over the area and affect
the terminal locations. JLN is on the southwest edge of the clouds
and should scattered at near the onset of the 06z TAFS. Clouds
just now getting into SGF and will be several hours before they
clear out. Clouds will still be a couple hours away for BBG.
Generally ceilings were around 2500 feet. Should go to VFR by 12z
for all sites and continue that way through the remainder of the




SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding