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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 160745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Remnant low pressure was moving across the area early this
morning (located just east of SGF), producing low clouds, fog, 
drizzle and showers. It indeed felt very tropical like with temps 
and dewpoints in the 70s. Current PW values were between 
2.0-2.2in. Heavier precip was located further south into Arkansas.
Low pressure will continue to move east/northeast this morning 
with precip continuing across the eastern half of the area into 
the afternoon hours. Instability will increase during the 
afternoon and some isolated thunderstorms may develop, mainly in 
the eastern Ozarks. High temps will be warmer further west with 
Joplin getting close to if not reaching 90 degrees while the 
eastern ozarks will struggle to reach the lower 80s.

Conditions will dry out tonight as the system departs however 
winds will turn more southerly and 850mb temps begin rising. Low 
temps in the western part of the area will remain in the low to 
middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

While the well advertised mid level ridge begins to build in on
Wednesday, one sneaky thing to watch is a subtle impulse that 
moves through the northern part of Missouri during the day that 
could have an effect on heat and precip chances. Some high res 
and global guidance develops precipitation late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning, on what looks like a decent low level 
jet nosing into northwest Missouri. This precip then falls apart 
during the morning but there is a semblance of a boundary and that
mid level impulse that could ignite some precip during the 
afternoon across the area, however mid level temps will be warming
so coverage of any precip is in question. Will include a slight 
chance of precip across southern Missouri during the afternoon and
hopefully models can hone in on this better as we get closer. 
Otherwise, it will most likely be warm with highs in the low to 
mid 90s. Dewpoints will likely remain in the 70s therefore heat 
indicies will reach the 100-105 range. This looks to occur through
the end of the week therefore the already posted Excessive Heat 
Watch will continue in its current placement. Locations south of 
the Watch will likely be in an Advisory at some point. 

Global models are still showing a disturbance that moves over the
ridge during the weekend that might be able to disrupt the ridge
enough for us to cool slightly and may also increase precip 
chances by late in the weekend/early next week, if we do indeed 
end up in a slight northwest flow pattern. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Ceilings will lower and fog/drizzle is expected to develop
tonight, primarily at KSGF, but also at KBBG to some degree. KJLN
should be spared from the worst conditions given little to no
precipitation in the area yesterday and drier air over all.
Improvement to ceilings will be gradual on Tuesday.


MO...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday 
     evening for MOZ055>058-066>070-077>081-088-089-093.

KS...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday 
     evening for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield