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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

                            
000
FXUS63 KSGF 190444
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1144 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Main forecast concerns are on convective potential this evening and 
overnight, and then heat index and potential heat headlines for 
Monday afternoon.

Much like the past several days, overnight convection has resulted 
in clouds slow to dissipate over the area. A well defined outflow 
boundary pushed through the region earlier this morning and has 
settled well south of the area. Current radar showing convection 
across northern Arkansas into southeast Missouri along this outflow. 
Cannot rule out isolated convection further north across southern 
Missouri this evening and into the overnight hours, but at this point 
not expecting anything widespread.

Monday looks mainly hot and dry. Cannot rule out some isolated 
convection across the eastern Ozarks, but most areas look to remain 
dry. Will see temperatures soar into the lower 90s with heat index 
values likely ranging from 95 to 107, with the warmest values over 
southeast Kansas and western Missouri. After collaboration with 
surrounding offices did hoist a heat advisory for the western tier 
of counties Monday afternoon and Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Tuesday will be dominated by the strong upper level ridge overhead 
and a continuation of the hot and humid weather. Tuesday will likely 
be the hottest day as 850mb temperatures are progged to be +24 to 
+26 Celsius which will corresponds to surface temperatures in the 
mid 90s and perhaps some upper 90s. Combine this with mid 70s dew 
points will result in rather widespread heat index values of 105 to 
110. Did go ahead hoist a head advisory for the entire area.

We do get a break in the heat as the ridge does break down a bit 
allowing for a surface cold front to drop through the area 
Wednesday. Wednesday will likely be another warm day though before 
the cooler air does arrive for for the end of the week. THis front 
looks to hang around the area the remainder of the week, but just 
exactly where remains problematic. None the less along with the 
cooler weather will be periodic rain chances as well that will last 
right into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

VFR conditions expected to prevail, although there is potential 
for some isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight and Monday. 
For now, left any precipitation out of the forecast given 
significant uncertainty.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-
     068>071-079>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ066-
     067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101-102.

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Titus