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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 210737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
237 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Highly amplified pattern was over the CONUS early this morning
with ridge axis having shifted east of the area from the southeast
into the eastern Great Lakes region. Plains into the upper
Mississippi valley were in a broad area of strong southwesterly
flow aloft with a deep trough across the Rockies. Good low level
flow from the Gulf combined with Pacific moisture from the
southwest flow aloft have brought tropical like moisture to the
area with PWATS currently around 1.8 to 1.9 in. Current convection
was to our southwest over Oklahoma, with a few light showers
trying to generate over central MO. Yesterday was much cooler over
the area with the clouds/rain but it was also keeping the very
mild temperatures during the nighttime with 2 AM readings still in
the low to mid 70s.  

Our main focus in the short term through tonight will be with
showers and thunderstorms developing over the area, especially in
the western CWA and the potential for some flooding. The rain
chances will continue through the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the rest of the overnight into today, will see showers and
some thunderstorms continue to lift northeast into the western
CWA. Main axis of instability will be north and west of the CWA
during the afternoon and would expect the most intense convection
outside of our CWA. A few of the stronger cells in our CWA may be
capable of some hail to the size of quarters and 50-60 mph winds.
The main risk will be with the heavy rain potential today and
tonight, mainly over the northwestern CWA later tonight. With high
PWAT values and upper level energy moving in from the southwest
out ahead of the main trough, will see continued chances of heavy
rain overnight in the northwest CWA. Will be issuing a flash flood
watch for southeast Kansas into west central MO that starts late
tonight and will continue through Sunday evening. Despite the dry
conditions over the past several weeks, some training convection
with the high PWAT values may lead to some flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

While the main upper level low will track east across the northern
plains into the upper Mississippi valley, a cold front will slowly
track through the area Sunday into Sunday night. High PWAT values
ahead of the front will provide for more heavy rain across the
area with the highest QPF still remaining in the northwest portion
of the CWA. Instability looks to be fairly limited again on Sunday
over the area with ongoing convection limiting the daytime
heating. If some instability can develop, then some marginally
severe storms would be possible. Much drier air will move in
behind the front and should shut down the rain threat for Monday
into Monday night.

Moisture will begin to creep back into the area on Tuesday as the
high pressure shifts east of the area and southerly flow returns
the Gulf air back to the region. Upper energy and a front
lingering in the region will aid on additional rain chances from
Tuesday through the end of the upcoming work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Ceilings have been hovering between MVFR and VFR for most of the
evening over the central and western sections of the CWA and this
trend will continue through the overnight. Winds will stay
up...and may occasionally gust to near 20kts in KSGF...which will
mitigate any fog formation.  

Will begin to see shower activity move in from the west towards
morning. Shower activity will be on the increase during the day on
Saturday with a few embedded thunderstorms within this activity.


MO...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through late Sunday night 
     for MOZ055-056-066-067-077-078.

KS...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through late Sunday night 
     for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg