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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

                            
000
FXUS63 KSGF 142022
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
322 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Remnants of last night's convective activity are currently exiting
the area. Upper level pattern is becoming more zonal as forecast
with subtle waves moving through the flow at this time.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected to develop
overnight...developing over the High Plains and moving across 
Kansas similar to last night. This is expected to produce an MCV
over eastern Kansas that will track across central Missouri during
the day on Saturday. This will set up the area...especially
northern section for strong to severe storms with large hail and
strong winds being the primary threat. Will need to monitor any
outflow boundaries that form overnight as these could be the focus
for convection on Saturday.

Will also have a rather strong low level jet over the area tonight
which will tend to keep the winds up especially along the Ozark
Plateau. With the return flow of moisture and warm air... 
temperatures and humidity levels on Saturday will be closer to
mid-June normals.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Upper level flow remains zonal to a bit southwesterly through most
of the extended period. As stated previously...confidence is
increasing that a heavy rain event will occur...but uncertainty 
still remains as to the location and amounts expected.

As the first wave approaches on Sunday...it will bring with it a
surface front that will stall out over the area on Sunday evening,
bringing the first round of rainfall. The surface front then 
meanders over the area until a second upper wave in the Wednesday 
to Thursday time frame, bringing with it increased rainfall 
chances. A third wave then moves through at the end of the 
forecast period on Friday.

Based on the current forecast...it appears that overall rainfall 
amounts should average 2-4 inches with locally five inches 
possible, although these have trended downward slightly over the
last couple of forecast cycles. The heavier amounts will occur 
with the passage of each of the upper level waves. The 
uncertainty comes with how much rain falls with each wave and 
location of the heaviest rainfall axis. Hydrological interests 
across the area should continue to closely monitor the situation 
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Overall...expect VFR conditions through the forecast period with
mid and upper level clouds. Some light rain will be moving 
through central Missouri as well during the afternoon. 

Overnight...another thunderstorm complex should develop over the 
High Plains and approach the area around sunrise. Also...with a 
strong low level jet over the area tonight...expect some LLWS 
mainly between 06-12z. As mixing occurs after sunrise...expect 
winds to become gusty by mid to late morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Gaede