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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

                            
000
FXUS63 KSGF 170500
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

...06Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

Warm conditions across the area early this afternoon with
temperatures from the mid 70s to low 80s. Dew points were also on
the rise, especially over the western CWA with readings in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Warm front has lifted north into southern
Iowa. Main focus through Wednesday will be with temperatures and
the potential of severe storms on Wednesday afternoon. The severe
risk will continue into Wednesday night and possibly Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

For tonight, Gulf moisture will continue to increase across the
area and we should see some stratus moving into the area very late
tonight into Wednesday morning. The clouds and steady south winds
will keep temperatures on the warm side tonight with lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s. On Wednesday, a capping inversion is
expected to set up over the area above the stratus deck. There
will be some low level lift and may see some sprinkles or a light
shower, but will keep pops below 15 percent for now. Temperatures
should still reach the 70s again Wednesday despite the cloud cover
with a warm start to the morning and continued warm air advection
in the low levels.

Strong to severe convection is not looking all that promising
during the day Wednesday with the cap in place and not much to
break it down until the evening as the front moves in. IF
something could develop, a large hail risk will be possible given
the elevated instability and 0-6 bulk shear.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

By Wednesday evening, the front will start to move closer and the
cap should weaken. Most of the thunderstorm activity looks like it
will be along the front and the main severe weather risk will be
with straight line winds. Thunderstorms will spread east across
the area during the overnight ahead of the boundary. Models still
have the front in the far eastern CWA by late morning and early
afternoon. If enough instability can develop ahead of the front,
then there would be a risk of some strong to severe storms on
Thursday across the far eastern Ozarks. The precipitation should
come to an end by the late afternoon Thursday, with the main
trough shifting out of the area on Friday. Cooler temperatures are
expected for both Thursday and Friday with highs in the 50s and
60s.

A ridge axis will push into the area on Saturday into Saturday
night, with some energy moving into the area ahead of the next
trough later in the day on Sunday. With some afternoon
instability, some thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday into
Sunday night. Highs over the weekend will rise back into the 70s.

The main front with this next system will arrive early next week
with the chance of showers and thunderstorms continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

VFR ceilings will persist overnight until early Wednesday morning,
at which time low level stratus moving into the area will bring
MVFR conditions between 1500-2500 feet, with JLN seeing the lower
end of this range. The prominent thermal cap looks to persist
throughout most of Wednesday, keeping the chances for convection
mainly during the evening into Wednesday night.

Gusty southerly winds will again be expected throughout 
Wednesday, with wind gusts up to around 20-25 knots possible.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Rothstein/Cramer