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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 221706

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1206 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Storms are developing along a thermal boundary that extends from
Warsaw southeastward toward West Plains. Over the rest of the
region, the capping inversion is weakening so have included at
least a slight chance all areas this afternoon. 


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Ongoing MCS N/NE of the forecast area will continue to graze the 
northeastern and eastern portions of the area through this morning. 
Could see some gusty winds from this, but not expecting severe 
weather. There is a chance that some additional precip forms along 
the outflow that will move through much of the area, but with a 
strong cap in place per the 0Z sounding, widespread convection is 
not expected. Otherwise, expecting highs from around 90 to 94 and 
heat indices around 100.

A shortwave associated with convection currently over southern TX 
will move toward the forecast area this evening under SW flow aloft. 
In addition, a cold front across KS and OK will start to move 
eastward and spark convection. These features will interact with a 
very unstable airmass across OK and eastern KS, leading to the 
development of convection that is expected to contain severe storms. 
Models suggest the resulting cluster of convection will enter the 
western forecast area late in the evening, but exact track and 
timing will have to be ironed out some more. Expectation right now 
is for the best coverage and strength of convection to be over the 
western portions of the area, with large hail and damaging winds 
possible. Over far western portions of the area, very large hail and 
enhanced damaging winds are possible. Flooding will also be a 
concern given ample moisture in the atmosphere and recent rains and 
flooding in those western areas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

The early Sun convection should be diminishing Sun morning. Overall, 
looks like a similar setup later in the day and night as today and 
tonight but focused farther east. This will favor far southeast KS 
and far SW MO for potentially very large hail, damaging winds, and 
perhaps a tornado threat. The rest of the area can expect a lesser, 
but still present severe weather threat with large hail and damaging 
winds the primary threats. The flooding concern continues.

Upper ridging builds over the central CONUS for the rest of next 
week, resulting in a drier and more typical summertime pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Complicated forecast given several clusters of thunderstorms
expected in the region through the next 24 hours. Models have not
been handling this convection well, which limits confidence.
Another round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms is
expected later this evening into tonight.