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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 160428

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1128 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Pleasant April day across the Ozarks with temperatures in the
upper 60s to mid 70s as of 2 pm. Fairly zonal pattern aloft with
the next system to bring storms to the area still off the west
coast. Pretty good low level warm advection occurring with ridge
axis to the east and southerly winds at the surface and 25 to 35
kts of southwest wind at 850mb.  

Main focus through Tuesday will be with winds and temperatures.
Long term will focus on severe weather chances late Wednesday into
Wednesday night.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

For tonight, the southerly winds will stay up and low level jet
will be cranking up with 850 mb southwest winds of 40-55 kts. Will
keep the area mild overnight with lows from the low 50s east to
the upper 50s west. Tuesday looks even warmer than today with mid
70s to low 80s expected. May see some surface winds reach about 30
mph during the late morning through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Tuesday night will be very mild with low level moisture continuing
to advect into the area as we maintain our low level flow from the
Gulf. Most of the area should remain in the upper 50s to low 60s
for lows. The main upper system will have moved into NM by then
with a surface low over north central KS by 12z Wed.

This low will lift northeast into Iowa by the middle of the
afternoon Wednesday with a front extending southwest of the low
into the TX panhandle region. There should be plenty of
instability develop over the area during the afternoon, however a
thermal cap between 850 mb and 750 mb will likely hold through
much of the afternoon. As the front approaches from the west, the
thermal cap will weaken and the potential of severe storms will
arrive. Plenty of 0-6km shear is available and it looks like our
primary severe weather risk will be large hail. Severe weather
risk will lessen by the late evening into the overnight hours as
the instability weakens. The front will still be pushing through 
the area on Thursday morning to the early afternoon and if enough 
instability can develop ahead of the front in the far eastern 
Ozarks, then some strong to possibly severe storms would be 
briefly possible on Thursday as well. The upper level low and 
associated energy on the back side of the low will push through on
Friday and may see some rain showers in association with this 
back edge of energy. Thursday and Friday should be cooler with the
clouds/rain and Pacific air mass moving in, but not as cold as 
the last system. We should then begin to warm back up over the 
Easter weekend as upper ridging shifts into the area ahead of the 
next trough. 60s to low 70s Saturday and mid to upper 70s on 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG: VFR with gusty south winds. A sfc wave of low
pressure along the over CO/KS border will move slowly east. Low 
level wind fields support a mention of low level wind shear prior 
to 12z. 




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg