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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 150902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
302 AM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

Main forecast concern remains centered on precipitation types and 
amounts through tonight. Early this morning, colder temperatures 
were pushing southward across the region in the wake of a cold 
front. Temperatures were already below the freezing mark generally 
north of a West Plains to Eminence line and expect this freezing 
line to continue to push southward through the morning hours and set 
up near the Arkansas border later today. Meanwhile, a mid level 
shortwave trough will rotate across Missouri, accompanied by a 
rather strong upper jet streak. These two features will combine for 
a period of enhanced lift from mid morning through the afternoon 
hours, before pushing east of the area this evening. All models 
depict a pronounced warm nose, with the biggest uncertainty being 
its northward extent into southern Missouri. GFS tends to keep it 
along the Arkansas border as does the latest runs of the RAP and the 
HREF, while the NAM appears to be the outlier and pushes it as far 
north as Joplin to Bolivar to Willow Springs line. 

This system exits rather quickly this evening, with the 
precipitation ending by 06Z. Cannot rule out a little freezing 
drizzle on the back edge as all the models show a lack of cloud ice, 
but this may occur as the precipitation is ending.

Bottom line is expectations for 0.10 to 0.20 inches of ice accretion 
along the counties bordering Arkansas with just a trace of sleet or 
snow. Just north of this from Joplin through Springfield and over 
towards Eminence will be up to a tenth of an inch of ice along with 
up to an inch of sleet and snow. Meanwhile 2 to 4 inches of snow is 
expected over central Missouri with just a glaze of ice. Day shift 
will have to monitor warm nose closely as the day wears on with 
updates to these amounts still possible.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

A weak mid level ridge will build in behind the system for the first 
part of Saturday with quiet conditions, but remaining on the cool 
side with highs just in the 30s for much the area, and perhaps some 
low 40s over far southwest Missouri. There could be a decent 
temperature gradient across the region with snow cover expected over 
central Missouri and little or snow snow over far southern Missouri.

This quiet weather will be short lived as a trough develops over the 
northern and central Plains, with an upper jet streak once again 
poised to advance eastward on its southern Periphery nosing into 
Missouri late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Lift associated 
with this will result in an area of precipitation from Saturday 
night into Sunday morning. Models are suggesting a warm nose again 
will be present over portions of the area, perhaps as far north as 
central Missouri. This again will result in a wintry mix for much of 
the area once again. At this point amounts look to be on the light 
side, but still likely to produce some impacts.

The active weather pattern will continue right through mid-week. 
after a quiet period from later Sunday into Monday, yet another 
system looks to take aim at the region. A broad area of southwest 
flow will prevail as a shortwave is expected to lift out of the 
desert southwest later Tuesday and lift into the central and 
southern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing another 
chance for wintry precipitation to the region. Certainly too early
to discern amounts or types at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Thu Feb 14 2019

Band of stratus which formed behind the frontal boundary was still
shifting southeast across the CWA. JLN was on the back edge and
should scatter out by 06z. SGF was in the middle of the band as of
05z and it has yet to reach BBG. So several hours to go in SGF and
should start to move into BBG by 07z and end by 11-12z. Generally
around 1500 foot ceilings.  

Models have been coming in a bit further south with the warm nose
aloft this evening which would bring more sleet/snow at SGF/JLN,
but still keeps BBG more in the FZRA signal for Friday's winter
weather. Have trended the 06z TAFS in this direction, with onset
by mid to late morning and continuing into the mid evening hours.
Will likely see MVFR/IFR conditions within the snow areas.


MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST 
     tonight for MOZ055>058-068>071-079>083-090>092-095>098-

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this 
     evening for MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094-101-102.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this 
     evening for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding