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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 191039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
539 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Issued at 242 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Water vapor shows an amplified pattern over the CONUS with a
fairly deep shortwave over the west coast, ridging over the
central U.S. and another trough off the east coast. Also, remnants
of tropcial system Imelda over the TX/LA gulf coast. Locally,
temperatures were still quite warm for 2 AM in mid September with
readings in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Dewpoints were in the mid to
upper 60s.

The main focus in the short term will be with the continued heat
over the area and chances for a few showers/thunderstorms this
afternoon. In the extended, we will focus on shower/thunderstorm
activity with the remnants of Imelda and tropical moisture in the
area then with a front interacting  with this moisture.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For today, temperatures will heat up once again during the day
with a warm start to the morning. Highs may be tempered slightly
from previous couple of days with more scattered convection of the
area and cloud cover during the afternoon, but still looking at
low to mid 90s possible. PW values will begin to increase over the
area from the south as Imelda remants drift north into Arkansas.
Still expecting lows tonight in the in the upper 60s to around 70

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

On Friday, remnants of Imelda will begin to push into southern MO,
while the main upper trough to the west will slide east into the
Rockies, with a large Pacific fetch of moisture from Baja into the
plains meeting up with the Gulf moisture flowing north into the
area. As a result, PW values will be on the increase into the 1.7
to 1.8 in. range. Showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous on Friday over the area. The main upper wave will affect
areas north and west of our CWA over the weekend, and also having
a higher instability axis northwest of the area. As a result, the
better heavy rain chances will be over our northwest CWA and
points north and west of the CWA. QFP amounts through Sunday range
from 1-2 inches along and northwest of the I-44 corridor with
lesser amounts southeast of there. With the recent dry spell and
heat which has dried out a lot of the vegetation, we are not
expecting wide spread flooding at this time through the weekend.

With the shortwave tracking north of the area this weekend, a
surface boundary will become more stationary in the vicinity of
the CWA early next week and will offer additional rain chances
through the middle of next week. The rain chances and cloud cover
from Friday through the extended will keep temperatures cooler
than we've had in the past week, with readings generally in the
lower to middle 80s for highs.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Generally expecting VFR conditions through the period. A few
isolated or scattered showers/thunderstorms possible this
afternoon, but expected coverage at this time not enough to
warrant mention in TAFS. If any convection would affect a terminal
location, then a brief period of MVFR or IFR would be possible.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg