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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 142349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
649 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

..00z Aviation Update..

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Remnants of last night's convective activity are currently exiting
the area. Upper level pattern is becoming more zonal as forecast
with subtle waves moving through the flow at this time.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected to develop
overnight...developing over the High Plains and moving across 
Kansas similar to last night. This is expected to produce an MCV
over eastern Kansas that will track across central Missouri during
the day on Saturday. This will set up the area...especially
northern section for strong to severe storms with large hail and
strong winds being the primary threat. Will need to monitor any
outflow boundaries that form overnight as these could be the focus
for convection on Saturday.

Will also have a rather strong low level jet over the area tonight
which will tend to keep the winds up especially along the Ozark
Plateau. With the return flow of moisture and warm air... 
temperatures and humidity levels on Saturday will be closer to
mid-June normals.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Upper level flow remains zonal to a bit southwesterly through most
of the extended period. As stated previously...confidence is
increasing that a heavy rain event will occur...but uncertainty 
still remains as to the location and amounts expected.

As the first wave approaches on will bring with it a
surface front that will stall out over the area on Sunday evening,
bringing the first round of rainfall. The surface front then 
meanders over the area until a second upper wave in the Wednesday 
to Thursday time frame, bringing with it increased rainfall 
chances. A third wave then moves through at the end of the 
forecast period on Friday.

Based on the current appears that overall rainfall 
amounts should average 2-4 inches with locally five inches 
possible, although these have trended downward slightly over the
last couple of forecast cycles. The heavier amounts will occur 
with the passage of each of the upper level waves. The 
uncertainty comes with how much rain falls with each wave and 
location of the heaviest rainfall axis. Hydrological interests 
across the area should continue to closely monitor the situation 
through the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

A tricky forecast leaves some uncertainty in the skies tonight.
Nonetheless, VFR ceilings will persist across all regional
terminals through at least 06z. Beyond that, a few notable 
features will need to be watched.

Perhaps the most notorious feature of the night will be strong
low-level winds, as a 45 knot, SW-NE oriented low-level jet, 
noses into the region. Thus, low-level wind shear will need to be
monitored from 06z and beyond.

The other feature of concern will be a weakening complex of
showers and storms coming into Missouri from Kansas. Short-term 
models yield differing solutions in how the complex evolves. Thus,
there is a high degree of uncertainty on whether terminals will 
experience storms overnight into Saturday morning or not.

At this juncture, there is at least a 30 percent chance of storms
tonight for all terminals. Thus, there has been mention of storms
in the TAFs with conditions becoming MVFR for a brief time 
between 06-12z.

Otherwise, conditions will remain VFR with surface winds steadily
out of the south at around 15 knots, with occasional gusts to 25