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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 221727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Storms are developing along a thermal boundary that extends from
Warsaw southeastward toward West Plains. Over the rest of the
region, the capping inversion is weakening so have included at
least a slight chance all areas this afternoon. 


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Ongoing MCS N/NE of the forecast area will continue to graze the 
northeastern and eastern portions of the area through this morning. 
Could see some gusty winds from this, but not expecting severe 
weather. There is a chance that some additional precip forms along 
the outflow that will move through much of the area, but with a 
strong cap in place per the 0Z sounding, widespread convection is 
not expected. Otherwise, expecting highs from around 90 to 94 and 
heat indices around 100.

A shortwave associated with convection currently over southern TX 
will move toward the forecast area this evening under SW flow aloft. 
In addition, a cold front across KS and OK will start to move 
eastward and spark convection. These features will interact with a 
very unstable airmass across OK and eastern KS, leading to the 
development of convection that is expected to contain severe storms. 
Models suggest the resulting cluster of convection will enter the 
western forecast area late in the evening, but exact track and 
timing will have to be ironed out some more. Expectation right now 
is for the best coverage and strength of convection to be over the 
western portions of the area, with large hail and damaging winds 
possible. Over far western portions of the area, very large hail and 
enhanced damaging winds are possible. Flooding will also be a 
concern given ample moisture in the atmosphere and recent rains and 
flooding in those western areas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

The early Sun convection should be diminishing Sun morning. Overall, 
looks like a similar setup later in the day and night as today and 
tonight but focused farther east. This will favor far southeast KS 
and far SW MO for potentially very large hail, damaging winds, and 
perhaps a tornado threat. The rest of the area can expect a lesser, 
but still present severe weather threat with large hail and damaging 
winds the primary threats. The flooding concern continues.

Upper ridging builds over the central CONUS for the rest of next 
week, resulting in a drier and more typical summertime pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Despite upper-level ridging, there are a few low-level features
that are causing a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions across southwest
Missouri terminals. Current visible satellite imagery shows a
blossoming cumulus field across the region as air parcels meet
their convective temperature. Relatively low dewpoint depressions
are keeping cloud bases on the fringe between VFR and MVFR. Thus,
expect some mixture of those conditions/ceilings through at least

Beyond 00z, a modest 30-40 kt LLJ will angle into southwest
Missouri ahead of an approaching upper-level disturbance. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move out of south central Kansas
and northern Oklahoma, and then spread into southwest Missouri.
Expect conditions to deteriorate after 06z with the arrival of
storms, especially at the JLN terminal where storm coverage will
likely be greatest.

For the next 6 hours, surface winds will largely keep their 
southern component with a magnitude of 10-15 kts and gusts to 25