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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 131935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
235 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Surface front is roughly along I-44 at this time and is making its
way slowly southward. Isolated rain showers are currently located
just ahead of the front but have been very light and short lived.
The heavier showers remain over Arkansas.

The front is expected to clear the area by 00z which should end 
the rain across the area. Mid and high level clouds will be 
possible through the evening into the overnight hours. The air 
mass behind the front is cooler and drier than what has been 
experienced the last few days. Lows tonight should actually be 
close to seasonal normals.

The seasonal weather will be short lived though. As the surface
high makes its way eastward...the return flow from the Gulf 
should begin Saturday morning over western Missouri and spread 
across the region by tomorrow evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Weather will be quiet through the remainder of the weekend into
the first part of the week as the upper level ridge currently over
the southeastern states begins to retrograde and amplify into the
region. It will feel muggy for this time of year with 
temperatures about 10 degrees above normal and dewpoints 
approaching 70 degrees. Afternoon heat index values will be in the
low to mid 90s.

The next storm system begins to ride up over the upper ridge late
Wednesday with a surface front approaching the region late 
Wednesday night into Thursday and Friday. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019

A band of broken mid-level clouds will continue to streak along a
slow-moving cold front. No shower or storm development is 
anticipated this afternoon or tonight along the front. Surface
winds will generally veer from north to south between now and 18z
Saturday, with speeds around 5 kts. This all adds up to VFR 
ceilings across all southwest Missouri terminals through Saturday