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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 210905

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
405 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Sfc low pressure will move east into the Central Plains today 
with increasing south winds and very warm temperatures. Green up 
is far enough along so that no fire wx headlines will be issued, 
but somewhat elevated fire conditions may occur today given the 
low afternoon humidity expected. 

A shortwave moving northeast from the central High Plains to the
Cornbelt will push a sfc trough east extending from western IA,
the KS Flint Hills into western OK by 12z/7am Monday. We could 
see some isolated elevated showers/tstms late tonight in the
strong low level warm air advection but we are not looking at 
anything significant.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

This period will see periodic chances for showers and some
thunder, but widespread high impact weather appears unlikely. 

Monday-Wednesday: The sfc front over the Plains will ease east 
and southeast into our area late Monday, then possibly briefly 
stall over far southern MO late Monday night into Tuesday. We will
be under the influence of southern branch of upper level 
westerlies during this time with a weak shortwave supporting a 
modest sfc wave along the front late Tuesday into Wednesday. This 
could bring us our best overall chances for showers/tstms this 
week. Overall instability looks relatively modest, but chances for
a stronger storm aren't zero when/if enough instability is 
present given the expected vertical shear. Again, low end chances,
but something to monitor for Tuesday-Wednesday.

Thursday: Guidance has been fairly consistent in closing off an
upper low over the southwest U.S./Mexican border then shifting it
slowly east to the Arklatex Region by late Thursday. At this
point, guidance varies a bit concerning the northern extent of
precip chances into our area Thursday. Our forecast is weighted a
bit toward the 00z GFS and Canadian GDPS, but even the ECMWF which
is farther south does bring showers into southern MO. Shear and
instability look weak with mostly just showers and very little (if
any) thunder. 

Friday-Saturday: The upper low shift off to the east-southeast
with (mostly) dry weather expected. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

VFR conditions will persist through Sunday evening with increasing
high clouds. Southerly winds will increase on Sunday with gusts
over 25 knots.