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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

                            
000
FXUS63 KSGF 162005
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Early morning precip and cloud cover had left the western half of
the area fairly stabilized and slightly drier (see 12z SGF
sounding), however airmass recovery was ongoing. Some isolated 
showers and storms were developing on differential heating 
boundaries outside of the cloud band. With one area north of the
area closer to KC and another area in the McDonald and Barry count
areas. Areas further east of US highway 65 were more unstable as 
that region has experienced more sunshine today.

A pair of vorticity lobes; one across far southeast Kansas and 
the other back in southwestern Oklahoma, had not moved much all 
day given the weak mid/upper level flow, therefore lift remains 
for showers and thunderstorms. The energy in southeast Kansas will
slowly move east/northeast this evening and will initiate some
scattered showers and storms across the area. Mid level lapse
rates are poor (5.5-6 C/Km) and ML capes are only around
500-1000j/kg therefore not anticipating much if any severe storms
this evening with small hail and brief gusty winds the main 
potential hazards. Higher severe chances look to occur to the east
of the CWA as instability is higher there. PW values are still 
around 1.5in and given the light flow, some locally heavy rainfall
will be possible as well.

Overnight, the additional energy in Oklahoma will slowly begin to
move east with a low level jet much further south than last night,
focused more towards the I-40 corridor of Arkansas. It is 
possible that showers and thunderstorms erupt across eastern Texas
into Arkansas and may disrupt the flow of moisture into the area.
Therefore at this time we are expecting mainly scattered coverage
of showers and storms overnight with locations closer to the 
Missouri/Arkansas state line seeing the highest chances. PW 
values are forecast to increase overnight therefore the 
potentially for heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flooding 
will be possible again. Some locations could pick up a inch or 
two of rain in the more intense, slow moving cells. The severe 
risk looks marginal at best overnight with hail to the size of 
pennies and winds to 50mph possible along with lightning.

Shortwave energy will move directly overhead during the morning
and afternoon hours Monday with continued scattered showers/storms
in the morning. Could see slightly higher coverage and amounts of
rainfall across the eastern half of the area tomorrow, especially
if instability can enhance thunderstorms. Temperatures will be
similar to today with highs around 80, depending on cloud cover 
and precip. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Precipitation moves off to the east Monday night however
additional shortwave energy moves in during the afternoon and
evening on Tuesday. Models differ on the timing/details, however 
there is some consensus that another complex of showers and storms
will develop to our west and move east into the area during the 
evening and overnight hours, especially as a low level jet is 
forecast to nose into the area. Depending on instability, a severe
and flooding risk could develop. Precip could linger into 
Wednesday, especially across the eastern half of the area. Timing
of the wave on Wednesday is in question and could focus additional
showers and storms during the afternoon and evening.

At this point Thursday and potentially Friday look drier as mid 
level height rises build into the area. This also means warmer
temps with highs pushing 90 Friday. 

Shortwave energy is forecast to eject into the plains by the
weekend creating additional shower and storm chances.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

A broken to overcast mid level cloud deck will likely remain at
JLN and SGF for most of the afternoon. There will be some
scattered showers and thunderstorms that develop during the
afternoon and evening hours however coverage looks to isolated to
include much more than vicinity at this time. Winds will remain
light and somewhat variable as they go from southeast back to
southwest at times. MVFR ceilings are likely by Monday morning. 


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield