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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 162127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
327 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 144 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Surface temperatures were slowly climbing to near freezing across
the area this afternoon however thicker cloudcover is moving in
and will likely halt much more warming. Short term models have
struggled with temperature guidance today and have had to go with
the coldest guidance (generally GLAMP and HREF) going into
tonight. A shortwave currently moving into Kansas along with a 
very strong upper level jet will move towards the region tonight, 
providing another round of winter weather to the area. 850mb warm 
air advection precip was developing in an arc from Kansas into 
western Missouri already. Had a few reports of sleet in this 
band in southeast Kansas, likely due to some wet bulbing and 
convective processes since about 50j/kg of MU cape exists. With 
this in mind, decided to go ahead and start the Winter Weather 
Advisory early for locations west of a Joplin to Warsaw line. The 
rest of the area (with the exception of Newton and McDonald 
counties) will start at 6pm. 

As we head through the mid to late evening, the low level airmass
will continue to saturate and stronger lift will move in. Cloud 
ice will likely be absent for most of the area therefore we are 
expecting widespread drizzle, especially after 10pm. This will 
likely be freezing drizzle in most locations with surface temps 
ranging from 28-32 degrees. Temperatures could be slightly colder
than this depending on exact wetbulb temperature. Southeasterly 
winds will begin to develop as a sfc trough takes shape over the 
area. This will also favor fog development, especially along the 
Ozark Plateau from Springfield and points east. Visibilities may 
drop below a mile at times. Will need to monitor the fog
development this evening to see if it needs expanding. RAP model
guidance is much more aggressive with fog.

Freezing drizzle will begin to become more patchy from 12-15Z
Sunday as better lift moves off to the northeast. Total ice
amounts from freezing drizzle will generally range from 0.05 to
0.10in across the area with the highest of these amounts generally
north of interstate 44. Any light sleet or light snow amounts
would remain a dusting at best and reside across central Missouri,
closer to a region of more cloud ice. Plan on slick road
conditions tonight into Sunday morning. Temperatures will not move
much at all on Sunday with most locations staying in the lower to
middle 30s with plenty of cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 144 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Main concerns will be systems ejecting northeast in southwest flow
aloft. Right now this would be appear to be Tuesday, then again
late in the week as a potentially more substantial system ejects
into the Plains and through our cwfa. 

Sunday night/Monday: Canadian sfc high pressure is expected to
nose south into the area with colder than normal temperatures and
dry conditions. 

Tuesday: A quasi stationary sfc front is expected to set up from
the TX Gulf coast with a broad area of upglide north of the front
as an upper level impulse moves northeast through the region. 
Still some variance in guidance, but in general precipitation is 
expected to spread northeast into the area Tuesday. Our area will 
be on the edge in terms of vertical thermal profiles between rain-
winter mix-snow once again. However, the ECMWF and GFS aren't 
showing much of a warm nose at this point, so for now will keep 
main precip types rain and snow. The northwest cwfa has the best 
chance for accumulation remaining in colder air longer. At hits 
point, it looks like an advisory type of winter event. We may also
have to watch rainfall amounts for our south central MO counties 
for a possible flooding, although higher rain amounts look to be 
just south and east of the area. System looks to shift east of the
region Tue night. 

Wednesday-Thursday: Look like this period will be relatively quiet
with (somewhat) moderating temperatures. Longwave trough over the
western CONUS with a ridge over the east leaves us in southwest
flow aloft and really can't rule out some precip during this time,
but there is no clear mechanism for lift with weak sfc high
pressure expected to pass to the north through the Midwest.

Friday-Saturday: There looks to be a pattern change with the 
longwave trough over the west opening up and ejecting a system 
into the Plains during this time. Right now, it looks to be mostly
rain or maybe rain changing briefly to snow before ending, but 
have low confidence in the track and timing of the system. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

A broken to overcast layer of IFR to MVFR ceilings will last for
the rest of the afternoon and evening hours. Later this evening
into the overnight hours, drizzle and freezing drizzle will
develop across the area, affecting the TAF sites. Ceilings and
visibilities will likely drop well into the IFR range overnight.
There is some potential for lower visibilities than forecast. 
Winds will switch from the northeast to east and then southeast 


MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST 
     Sunday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>098-

KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST 
     Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Burchfield