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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 150657

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
157 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Weak short wave energy will drift southeast across southern Iowa 
and northern Missouri today. Shower and thunderstorm activity 
associated with this wave will remain north of I-70. At the
surface, a ridge axis will continue to slide south across
southeastern Missouri and northern Arkansas. 

We are looking for a dry and mostly sunny day across the Missouri
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas with southwest surface winds
prevailing to the north of that ridge axis. Temperatures look 
very warm with 850 mb temperatures in the 19-20 Celsius range. 
This should result in afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 

The dry weather will then continue into tonight with lows once
again falling into the upper 60s and lower 70s over most areas. We
may still see some middle 60s in the cooler valleys across the
eastern Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Upper level high pressure will remain in control of the weather
through midweek. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will
persist with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s continuing into

Global models are then pretty consistent in bringing a fairly deep
trough into the western U.S. by Thursday with this energy slowly
lifting northeast across the northern and central Plains next
weekend. Slight chances for thunderstorms may return to end the 
work week, however better chances may arrive next weekend with 
the eventual arrival of a cold front.

Temperatures will remain well above normal for the entire work
week with a return to near normal values once that front arrives
sometime next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Some high level clouds occurring across a portion of the area 
late this evening. We are not expecting anything but VFR 
conditions as upper ridging begins to build back over the region.




SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann