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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 171715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1215 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Thursday)

Moisture advection continued overnight over extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. A large upper level storm system
was approaching from the west, and will trigger showers and
thunderstorms later this evening and tonight. Some of these storms
are expected to become severe, with large hail and damaging wind
gusts being the primary risk. While the low level instability and
shear structure does not look ideal for tornadoes across the
Ozarks, we will introduce a limited risk for a tornado or two, 
given SPC's Day 1 Outlook. 

For most of today, sunshine and south winds will pump temperatures
back into the 70s and low 80s by mid afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms should hold off until this evening. As a matter of
fact, a strong cap across southern Missouri may suppress convection
until closer to midnight, when the surface front approaches from 
the northwest. 

The areal coverage of storms will quickly increase at this point
as warm sector convection could be forced as better moisture
transports in from the south. Therefore the midnight to 6am time
frame could be the busiest period regarding organized

If a line segment or two can orient perpendicular with 40 knot
0-3km shear vectors, wind damage along with a tornado or two will
be possible. Otherwise we feel as though large hail will be more
common with deep convection along the front. 

Storms will continue into Thursday morning across the eastern
Ozarks. This activity will exit south central Missouri by mid day
Thursday, as a much cooler airmass begins to usher in.
Temperatures Thursday night will fall into the lower 40s. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)

Much cooler temperatures are expected on Friday as north winds
bring in a Canadian airmass. Temperatures will struggle to warm
out of the low 60s Friday afternoon, under a mix of sun and
clouds, with blustery north winds. 

Temperatures in the 30s makes a come back Friday night into
Saturday morning. We will need to watch for frost potential
Saturday morning, but as of right now, this risk could be pretty
limited. The signal for frost isn't very strong at this time. 

The sensible weather for the rest of the weekend will improve with
time. Height rises fill back in as the upper low tracks further
away from the region. This will force southerly winds back into
the area, warming temperatures back into the low 70s on Saturday,
with mid and upper 70s likely for Easter Sunday. 

Our next chances for rain will occur Monday morning, and this will
be confined to the Osage Plains of southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. A small disturbance is progged to graze this

More substantial rain chances occurs sometime during the mid week
time frame. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

For the 18z TAFS...MVFR to VFR stratus deck still positioned over
the area below a capping inversion which will likely hold through
the remainder of the afternoon. Convection is expected to fire
along the front just to the northwest of the CWA early this
evening and then spread into the area this evening and overnight.
Convection will drop us into MVFR and IFR conditions during the
night with the front eventually moving through and switching winds
to the northwest and north. Will likely end with MVFR ceilings and
light rain or showers during the morning on Thursday.




LONG TERM...Cramer