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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 150744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
244 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

A decaying MCS continues to push into eastern Kansas this morning
which will bring a few showers and rumbles of thunder to portions
of southeast Kansas and far southwestern Missouri near sunrise. 
There is a limited risk that a few of these storms may produce a 
strong wind gust or two. As the MCS decays, a resulting outflow 
boundary and MCV will play a key role in the potential for 
possible strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday. Initially, 
any ongoing storms or development in the early morning hours will 
be elevated in nature. These storms will be fueled by a strong LLJ
stationed across the region this morning.

Afternoon convection and redevelopment is still uncertain as 
boundaries will play a key role on timing and location as another 
subtle wave of energy moves across the Middle Mississippi Valley. 
It appears as though a sufficient amount of CAPE and effective 
shear will be present along and south of the boundary by this 
evening. The main hazards of concern will be large hail and 
damaging winds. Additionally, the potential for multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms tracking over the region through 
Saturday night will pose a risk for excessive rainfall across a 
large portion of the CWA. The threat for flash flooding will be 
present through Saturday night. Expect warm and muggy conditions 
on Saturday as temperatures climb into the middle 80s and 
dewpoints in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

By Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into the
early morning hours across much of the CWA before pushing off to the
east. The repetitive pattern of upper level waves of energy 
transitioning through the region will continue into early next 
week as chances for additional showers and thunderstorms exist 
through Wednesday with temperatures topping out in the lower 80s.

There is an increasing concern into next week as multiple waves 
transitioning through the area may lead to excessive rainfall. 
Current forecast amounts of 2-4 inches of rainfall with locally 
higher amounts possible may be a cause for concern. It should be 
noted that QPF amounts have trended downward over the last few 
forecast cycles, but may need to be reevaluated in the short term 

As the zonal flow pattern menders further to the north by late 
week, expect increasing heights and warmer conditions. Generally, 
temperatures in the middle to upper 80s will be likely into next 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

LLWS will continue through tonight as a strong low level jet has
developed. That low level jet is feeding a storm complex across
south central Kansas that will move toward the area. Confidence is
increasing that at least KJLN will see convection associated with
this complex, but there is greater uncertainty at KBBG and KSGF as
convection may be falling apart as it moves into the area.