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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 191040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
540 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Currently across the forecast area, temperatures were still mild
in the mid 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Had an
outflow from earlier storms in the eastern CWA that tracked west
and sparked a few showers between midnight and 130 AM, but those
have dissipated.  

Main short term focus will be with temperatures and heat index
this afternoon, as well as a chance for some pulse thunderstorms
over the eastern Ozarks.

In the longer term, will need to monitor MCS track tonight for
thunderstorm chances on Tuesday over the eastern Ozarks. Heat and
humidity will persist on Tuesday then a front will move into the
area midweek for additional thunderstorm chances that will persist
through the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

For the rest of the overnight into today...will keep in lower pops
for mainly the northwest half of the CWA during the remainder of
the overnight hours where best moisture is showing on satellite.
Later today, we heat up into the low to mid 90s across the area as
upper ridge begins to build into the area. Heat index values will
range from around 100 to 107 with the highest readings over the
western CWA. Current heat advisory covers this well and see no
reason to adjust at this time. Afternoon instability shows CAPES
above 3000 j/kg with less than 20 kts of 0-6 shear. Some pulse
thunderstorms are possible, especially over the eastern CWA. Any
development should dissipate during the early evening.

A thunderstorm complex is progged to develop over western Iowa
tonight and track southeast. Most of the activity will stay north
and northeast of the CWA through 12z Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Some differences in how the MCS is handled on Tuesday, but the
majority keep the best chances of precipitation east of the CWA.
Have bumped up pops/qpf over the far eastern CWA and would
anticipate most of the CWA remaining dry. Will maintain the heat
advisory for the entire CWA for now, with most areas near 105 to
108. Eastern Ozarks will need to be monitored with better pop
chances and cloud cover possibly wreaking havoc with the

Next front will move into the area on Wednesday. With pretty
decent instability during the day as well, and 0-6km bulk shear
increasing during the late afternoon and evening, may see a severe
thunderstorm risk.

The surface front does not make it to far south into Arkansas and
will eventually move back through the area as a warm front over
the weekend, so precipitation chances will remain in the forecast
through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures should cool back into
the 80s behind the front for highs, but begin to rise back closer
to 90 by early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Some patchy fog over the eastern Ozarks early this morning, but
not affecting the TAF sites and not expecting it too. Upper ridge
will be building into the area and we should have VFR conditions
today/tonight at the three TAF sites.


MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for 

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for 



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg