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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 192259

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
559 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

A big pattern change is on the horizon for the weekend.

A quick glance at GOES 16 Water Vapor Imagery shows two notable
upper-air features this afternoon. (1) A long-wave trough situated
over the western CONUS, and (2) Tropical Depression Imelda, which
is currently over the ARKLATEX region. Over the next 36 hours, 
the tropical moisture from Imelda will phase together with the 
incoming trough from the west and make for a cooler and wetter 
period across the Ozarks.

For this evening, any scattered showers and storms that developed
during the afternoon will quickly dissipate after sunset with the
onset of diurnal cooling. Overnight temperatures will only cool 
into the upper 60s as mid-level cirrus clouds, associated with 
Imelda, stream into the region from the south.

Rain, and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder, is likely by Friday 
afternoon across far southwestern Missouri as synoptic lift from
Imelda phases with shortwave energy rippling into the region from
the southwest. Forecast soundings show little instability across 
the area and a deep, warm cloud-bearing layer. Therefore,
widespread convective (thunder) activity is not expected. However,
given the anomalously high PW values for September, some areas
could get up over an inch of rain tomorrow, especially in areas
west of Highway 65 and south of Interstate 44. This will also be
the area with the best chance of thunder. Rain will taper Friday
night as the better synoptic ascent lifts out of the region.

Temperatures on Friday will range from low 70s across far
southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas, to low 80s across
portions of central Missouri. The large spread in temperatures has
everything to do with cloud cover and rain. Meanwhile, overnight
lows will only cool into the upper 60s. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Additional chances for showers and storms exists both Saturday and
Sunday as a moisture-laden air mass remains in place ahead of an
approaching front. The best coverage on Saturday will be along and
north of I-44 where the better moisture and instability will lie.
Better coverage comes Sunday as the upper-level trough axis swings
into the Central Plains and forces a cold front through the 
region. Models still exhibit a spread of rainfall totals, but 1-3"
is a safe bet at this juncture across our area, with the highest
amounts staying north of Interstate 44.

Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will features daily highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s, and overnight low in the mid 60s to low 70s. 

A brief lull in activity is likely Monday into Tuesday as surface
high pressure and mid-level ridging builds in behind frontal 
passage. Seasonal temperatures will continue with daily highs in
the low 80s to upper 70s. 

By the middle of next week, mid-range model guidance exhibits another
shortwave trough digging into the central plains, spelling 
another period of unsettled weather for the Ozarks region.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours with
light winds out of the southeast. A pattern change is in store for
Friday morning as the remnants of a tropical disturbance will
translate through the region. Clouds will begin to lower and
become overcast with time beginning around the 12Z timeframe.
Additionally, a broad area of showers and thunderstorms will
move into the region by the 18Z timeframe bringing MVFR conditions
to all the terimals. Winds will be out of the south by 15Z 
tomorrow and will gust to 20 knots by the early afternoon.




LONG TERM...Albano