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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 222336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
636 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

What a nice day it has been across the Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas. Some cloud cover associated with a cold front across
eastern Kansas has kept parts of western Missouri and far
southeastern Kansas cloudy, but this has not kept temperatures 
from climbing into the upper 60s to upper 70s for the most part. 

The cold front will begin to make its way east this evening with
showers and isolated storms moving into the Ozarks region late
this evening into the overnight hours. 

The rain looks to be scattered in nature and the limited 
instability and lack of shear will keep thunderstorms to isolated

The front will move through the Ozarks overnight and begin to 
stall across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri Which will
provide the focus for showers and scattered storms to continue
across most of the region through the day on Tuesday. Overall rain
amounts should be between a quarter of an inch across central
Missouri to around and inch across southern Missouri. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

The stalled frontal boundary will then linger across the region
Tuesday night through late Wednesday night. This will continue to
focus rainfall across the region as shortwave energy from the
southwestern CONUS slides northeast along the southwesterly upper
level flow. 

A deep upper level trough will begin to kick out of the four
corners region and across the southern plains Late Wednesday 
night and through the day Thursday. A surface low will track 
across central Arkansas with showers and isolated storms wrapping
around the northern edge of the low across the Ozarks. 

High pressure will then filter into the region Thursday night 
into Friday giving the area a respite from what could be a 
generally wet week. 

Another cold front will move across the Plains and through the 
Ozarks Saturday night into Sunday morning as a deep low moves 
across the northern Plains and the Great Lakes region. This looks
to be a quick moving system and Sunday may turn out rather nice.

Models differ on a system for the start of next week and will 
watch this as it gets closer. 


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Ceilings are currently VFR across much of the area, with the
exception of the JLN aerodrome, which is hovering around the
VFR/MVFR threshold due to low level stratus associated with the
cold front in the vicinity. Precipitation development has yet to
be seen as upper level support is still to the southwest of the

More widespread MVFR ceilings will gradually spread eastwards
across the area tonight through Tuesday morning as the front 
pushes through, with intermittent IFR Tuesday morning as some
scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. The front should be
south of the area by the end of the forecast period.