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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 170458

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Cyclonic flow on the back side of the remnants of tropical system
Barry has resulted in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
across the eastern Ozarks this afternoon. This activity will 
persist through late afternoon before slowly diminishing in 
coverage this evening.

Confidence is increasing that we will see patchy fog development
tonight, especially across the eastern Ozarks if clouds can clear
enough. We saw no reason to stray from a model consensus blend for
low temperatures tonight with most areas falling into the upper
60s or lower 70s.

Summertime heat will then begin to settle in starting on Wednesday
as an upper level ridge builds over the region. Models and
upstream soundings suggest that 850 mb temperatures will warm into
the 21 to 24 Celsius range. A conditional climatology study with 
those 850 temperatures suggests that highs will warm into the 
lower to middle 90s over most of the area.

With dew points expected to be in the lower to middle 70s,
afternoon and early evening heat indices will warm into the 100 to
108 degree range. With at least four consecutive days of similar
conditions expected, we have upgraded the Excessive Heat Watch to
an Excessive Heat Warning for Wednesday into Saturday evening. We
have also included Phelps County in the warning. The remainder of
the Missouri Ozarks have been placed under a Heat Advisory for 
the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

One other quick note regarding Wednesday afternoon will be the
potential for widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the eastern Ozarks. Multiple CAMs continue to suggest this
potential in what will still be a very moist air mass.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Any remaining showers and thunderstorms will quickly diminish
Wednesday evening. Dry weather is then expected through at least
Saturday with the aforementioned heat and humidity taking the main
stage. High temperatures will remain in the lower to middle 90s
with afternoon and early evening heat indices in the 100 to 108 
degree range.

Global models continue to indicate the potential for a front
dropping south into the area early next week as short wave energy
moves across the Great Lakes and flattens that ridge. Timing of
this front is still in question, thus it is possible that the heat
and humidity persists into Sunday.

There does appear to be at least a limited chance for showers and
thunderstorms from the Sunday afternoon into Monday time frame 
with the frontal passage. Once the front does pass, we should see 
slightly cooler temperatures along with a slightly drier air mass.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

High pressure will continue to build over the region with only
high clouds expected. Surface winds will be generally light and


MO...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for 

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday 
     for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088-089-093.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Saturday 
     for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann