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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 230500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Severe watch continues for areas northwest of SGF. Surge in an
outflow boundary produced 56 mph gust at Warsaw a few minutes 
ago, but latest radar scan indicate convection in our northern 
cwfa has become increasingly outflow dominant. There are no plans 
to issue another watch downstream attm but will monitor.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

An outflow boundary has settled over the northeast portion of the
forecast area from Lebanon to West Plains. Thunderstorms developed
earlier today along the north side of the boundary, but much of
that activity has subsided as the main storm complex that produced
the outflow boundary has pushed southeastward toward Tennessee. 

To our west, storm coverage is increasing over eastern OK as an
upper level disturbance moves northeast toward the Ozarks and
interacts with the very unstable airmass over the region. Another
area of storm activity has developed over central Kansas near a
surface front. These storms are expected to affect areas northwest
of our forecast area.

Several rounds of storms are expected to move across the region
through late tomorrow night. While forecast model output still
shows some variation on where the heaviest rainfall will occur, 
our north and west counties will likely receive at least a few
inches of rain where grounds remain saturated due to earlier 
rainfall. So have issued a flash flood watch for late tonight 
through late Sunday night.

During the afternoon on Sunday, upper level winds increase and a 
negatively tilted upper trough moves across the region and
interacts with the unstable airmass. So still expect strong to 
severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) 
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

The upper trough will shift east of the area on Monday with an
upper level ridge building over the southern Plains by midweek,
and expanding over much of the central U.S. by next weekend. A 
few weak shortwaves riding around the periphery of the ridge may 
spark a few afternoon storms, but overall drier conditions are 
expected. Temperatures will be closer to normal after Monday. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered storms will be possible for much of
the period as disturbances move through the area, becoming more
numerous 09z-12z. Outside of storms we will generally see vfr 
conditions. With showers becoming more numerous later, we should 
see mvfr visibility ceilings more often with brief periods of ifr 
with more intense/heavier showers.


MO...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for MOZ055>058-

KS...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for KSZ073-097-101.



LONG TERM...Terry