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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 211952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
252 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Low pressure will move to the northeast across the plains and
begin to push a cold front towards the region this evening and 
through the overnight hours. Breezy winds will continue ahead of 
the front as the surface pressure gradient remains. 

The surface front will remain west of the region into Monday with
some showers and maybe and isolated thunderstorms developing in 
the warm sector ahead of the front during the day Monday. With 
southerly winds and warm air advection continuing, temperatures 
will again be in the 70s to around 80 degrees Monday afternoon. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

The cold front will begin to push into the region Monday evening 
into Monday night. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will 
develop mainly along and behind the cold front as it pushes 
through the Ozarks Monday night into Tuesday morning. Models have
some instability in place ahead of the front, but shear looks 
lacking as the best low level jet exits to the east of the region
in advance of the fronts arrival. This will result in more 
general thunderstorms development, though a strong storm or two 
may occur. No severe weather is expected. 

Tee cold front then looks as though it will stall across Kentucky
into the Missouri Bootheel region and southwest into the Red 
River Valley. This will occur as an upper level trough digs into
the southwestern CONUS and a few short waves swing out of the 
trough and ride along the stalled front. This will allow for 
isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances through mid
week before a surface low begins to lift out of the southern 
plains Late Wednesday night into Thursday. 

Showers and storms will impact areas mainly along and south of 
I-44 through the day Thursday before the system shifts east of 
the region. 

High pressure will then settle of r the area Friday into early
Saturday when another cold front is expected to move through the
area Saturday afternoon. 

Overall, the chances for severe weather with any of the system
through this coming week look limited at best. 

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Low pressure will remain to our west through the next 24 hour with
a tight pressure gradient bringing gusty south winds to the
terminals through much of the forecast period. Will continue to 
increase high clouds through late afternoon into the evening as
upper level flow becomes more southwesterly and pushes moisture
over the southern Plains into the Ozarks.

Still looks like precipitation will mainly affect areas north of
the airports late tonight and tomorrow morning as a weak upper
level disturbance moves over northern MO.