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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 230830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
330 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

There's a lot going on in the region right now. Ongoing persistent
convection over portions of the forecast area are expected to
continue into the morning hours before scattering out and shifting
east. Convective cluster over south-central KS is shown by
convective models moving into the west late this morning and
exiting the east by late afternoon. Primary risk with these 
rounds of convection is flooding given limited instability due to
the atmosphere being worked over continuously. Have expanded the
Flash Flood Watch slightly to the east to account for expected
rainfall and flooding concerns. Could still see a severe threat
with the cluster coming from KS, especially if instability can
push in from the SW as shown by some of the models.

Models then are divided on late day/overnight convection.
Convective models show very little instability to work with, and
therefore show little in the way of convection. Synoptic models
are more enthusiastic in showing widespread convection developing
with ample instability for severe storms. Dynamics will be strong
(height falls from the upper trough moving in, right entrance 
region of the jet, and surface cold front and trough), so if 
instability can build behind earlier convection then the severe 
risk would be solid. If this very conditional threat is realized, 
large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado would 
be possible. Additional rainfall would continue a flood threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

A more typical summertime pattern will become established this
week, resulting in hot and humid conditions with some low end
chances for showers and storms at times, but nothing widespread. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered storms will be possible for much of
the period as disturbances move through the area, becoming more
numerous 09z-12z. Outside of storms we will generally see vfr 
conditions. With showers becoming more numerous later, we should 
see mvfr visibility ceilings more often with brief periods of ifr 
with more intense/heavier showers.


MO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ055>058-066>070-

KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ073-097-101.