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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 202107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
407 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

The upper-level ridge axis and its associated surface high 
pressure will act to suppress the weather pattern for the rest of
this afternoon and tonight. Low temperatures overnight will range
between the mid 50s west of I-49, to the mid 40s across the hills
and valleys of the eastern Ozarks. Such a temperature gradient 
will be driven by the wind, as the surface pressure gradient 
begins to tighten late tonight in advance of developing low 
pressure in the lee of the Rockies. Thus, better mixing out west
will keep those temperatures milder.

The main forecasting concern for Sunday will be the wind. 
Frequent gusts above 30 MPH will be likely Sunday afternoon across
the Osage Plains. This will be in response to a 40 kt low-level 
jet axis nosing into the region ahead of strengthening surface low
pressure over north Kansas. 

Highs will likely surge into the 80s region-wide on Sunday as a 
much warmer airmass advects into the region. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

The pattern begins to change Sunday night into Monday as a series
of shortwaves ripple through southwest flow aloft. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may accompany this shortwave energy late
Sunday into Monday. There will be at least marginal instability,
with MUCAPE values in to 500-1000 J/Kg range; however, available moisture
in the column looks rather anemic. At this time, any shower or
storm development will likely stay north of I-44. Monday afternoon
into Monday evening will likely stay dry out ahead of a stalled
front. Temperatures on Monday will again be warm, with highs in
the middle-to-upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s.

The pattern will remain unsettled Tuesday through Friday. On
Tuesday, upper- level energy will ride along the stalled frontal 
boundary. The best chances for rain will stay along and south of 
I-44. There may be a few rumbles of thunder during this period, 
but instability looks lacking. 

For the Wednesday and Thursday period, a closed upper-low will 
traverse the Gulf Coast. With the Ozarks positioned on the 
northern periphery of this low, some wrap-around showers seem like
a good bet.

Temperatures during this period will be seasonable, with daily
highs near 70 and lows near 50. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Not a cloud in the sky today, and it will figure to stay that way
through most of the TAF period as an upper-level ridge axis and
its associated surface high pressure moves into the Ozarks.
Surface winds will gradually back from the west to the southwest
this evening in advance of developing surface low pressure in the
lee of the Rockies. Beyond 12z, southerly winds will blow with
gusto as a tightening surface pressure gradient yields frequent 30
MPH gusts.

Bottom line, VFR ceilings and light southwesterly surface winds
will dominate this TAF period.




LONG TERM...Albano