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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 180523

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1223 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Visible satellite and observations continue to show a stratus layer
across the area and special 18z SGF sounding continues to show EML
above the stratus deck. Cold front stretched from western Iowa
into northeast KS and into the TX panhandle. Regional radar
was showing most of the convection at this point associated with
the low in Iowa and Minnesota, although some storms have started
to now form in the Texas panhandle. Most of the region still had a
thermal cap in place and should prevent convection from developing
until very late afternoon or early evening along the cold front.
The storms will be the main focus in the short term.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

As mentioned in the synopsis, 18z soundings from SGF into the
southern plains showed a thermal cap in place which will likely
hold until this evening when convection should start to develop
along the front. The front will gradually work southeast into the
area this evening with strong to severe storms. By this time, we
are expecting most of the convection to become linear with the
frontal boundary with the main risk being damaging straight line
winds and some hail. If any bowing line segments can develop
towards the northeast, there could be a chance for a spin-up
tornado within the line segment. Most of the area will have a time
frame from mid-evening into the overnight hours for the severe
potential. Don't see much of a flooding risk, given the green-up
taking place and the progressive nature of the front, although
heavy rain is expected with the convection.

The convection will linger into Thursday morning over the eastern
Ozarks, but should come to an end during the afternoon hours. If
there is enough instability, then some strong to severe storms
will remain possible.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Cooler temperatures will linger into Friday as the back side of
the upper low continues to push through. Highs will be from the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

We should begin to warm back up over the weekend, into the 70s as
an upper ridge builds in behind the upper trough. Models do show
some differences with the strength and timing of the next energy
on Sunday, but both have some showers/thunderstorms possible by
late in the day into Sunday night.  

It looks to remain unsettled through the remainder of the long
term period with a slow moving upper trough and low closing off
over the region by the middle to later part of next week.  


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Storms are headed toward the terminals early in the forecast
period ahead of a cold front moving toward the region. Expect
ceilings to vary between MVFR and IFR through mid morning with
winds shifting to the west and northwest over the next several
hours. By 15-18Z most areas should see VFR ceilings and some gusty
north winds. 




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg