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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 152050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
350 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

A messy and complex forecast is shaping up for tonight and again
on Sunday with lots of mesoscale processes making it challenging.

A very moist and unstable airmass was developing across the
Oklahoma/Kansas/Missouri/Arkansas border region where dewpoints
were near 70 and air temps in the lower 80s. PW values were
approaching 1.75in. Morning clouds and precip primarily cleared
the area as a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) went just north of
the area and now resides in central Illinois. Mid level height 
rises were occuring across the area and also back into southern 
Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Mid level temperatures were also 
warming with a 1943Z AMDAR sounding out of Tulsa, OK showing a 
strong cap with a 700mb temp of 12C and a 800mb temp of 20C, 
therefore its likely going to take a good trigger to erode this 
cap that is advecting in. Don't expect much precip early this 
evening as a result.

A few potential triggers exist for showers and storms however they
both dont seem to arrive until after the mid evening hours (after
6-8pm). A pair of shortwaves, one moving east/southeast across the
Kansas/Nebraska border, and the other moving east into the Texas
panhandle, will move closer to the area tonight and provide lift
for a band of showers and storms to develop. A surface front was
analyzed from northwest Missouri back to the southwest into
central Kansas and Oklahoma. This will also slowly move east and
become a focus. A modest (40kt) 850mb low level jet will develop
tonight as well, and will continue to pump high amounts of
moisture into the area. 

While high res models do struggle with the placement of the
showers and storms tonight, there are two areas that seem to stand
out as initiation for storms. One of them being northern Oklahoma
into southeast Kansas, the other being central Missouri or 
locations north of interstate 44. Latest 18z NAM seems to show 
these areas potentially congealing into a cluster and moving 
through the entire area very late tonight (after midnight) and 
into the early morning hours Sunday. Did try to use a combination
of models for pops and qpf for tonight however given the mesoscale
nature of things, adjustments are likely this evening and
overnight as things begin to show their cards.

Severe potential: Forecast soundings show between 1500-2500j/kg of
mixed layer cape and about 30kts of effective deep layer shear.
This combined with steep mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8C/km
suggest the potential for large hail. Damaging winds will also be
a threat. The highest potential for severe storms will be along
and north of interstate 44, and generally after 10pm.

Heavy rainfall/flooding potential: Of potentially greater concern
is flooding. Given the high moisture content and generally uniform
southwest to west mid/upper level flow, storms could move across
the same areas repeatable and produce some heavy rainfall rates. A
few high res models are showing this therefore some 1-3 inch
rainfall amounts are likely in localized areas overnight. Too much
uncertainty as to the placement of this to issue a Flash Flood
Watch however will let the evening shift continue to look over new
data. Highest totals appear to be setting up along and north of

Depending on how much clearing we can get behind this activity
Sunday morning will determine the redevelopment potential for the
afternoon Sunday. We will have shortwave energy moving through
during the afternoon and evening therefore if enough instability
can be realized then redevelopment of showers and storms would be
possible with a few severe storms possible as well. Highs will
likely be a little lower due to clouds, however that could change
if we get more sun.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Another complex of showers and storms will get going Sunday night
however at this time it appears to be mainly focused south of I-44
and closer to the Missouri/Arkansas state line region. Additional
energy moves up into the area during the day Monday and will
continue chances for showers and storms. Brief shortwave ridging
occurs Tuesday however another disturbance moves in by Tuesday
evening providing another chance for showers and storms. This
pattern seems to repeat itself several times this week, 
potentially into the weekend. While it wont rain every day, when 
storm clusters do move through they could produce heavy rainfall 
therefore the advertised unsettled stretch of weather with several
inches of rainfall appear to be unfolding. High temps will slowly
rise a little each day this week with readings well into the 80s 
by the end of the week. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

High clouds will persist through much of the afternoon with just a
few showers near JLN and perhaps SGF. Otherwise the afternoon and
early evening looks to generally remain VFR. Winds will remain 
southerly this afternoon with gusts to 30 mph possible at times, 
but not as high as it was this morning.

Showers and storms will become more numerous overnight however
exact locations of storms remains uncertain so have gone with
prob30 mention for now. 




SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield