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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 182337

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
637 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Its been a cool, breezy and damp afternoon across southeast Kansas 
and the Missouri Ozarks. Some light rain continued to fall across 
the eastern Ozarks just behind a cold front. This front will push 
through the region by early this evening with the rain chances then 
ending. Model soundings suggest ample moisture will continue across 
the region overnight into the first half of Friday, so not expecting 
much in the way of any clearing, until later Friday. Look for lows 
tonight in the lower 40s. Highs Friday afternoon will be dependent 
on how quickly the clouds clear. Warmest readings likely across 
southeast Kansas and western Missouri where highs will reach the 
lower 60s, and the eastern Ozarks where highs will only make it back 
into the middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

From Friday night into Sunday, surface and upper level ridging 
builds across the area from the west. After a cold start Saturday 
morning, with temperatures likely in the mid 30s to low 40s, we will 
finally see warming temperatures by Saturday afternoon, back into 
the upper 60s to lower 70s for highs and even warmer for Sunday, 
possibly touching 80 degrees in a few spots as the ridge pushes east 
and southerly winds return to the area.

Later Sunday afternoon a lead shortwave trough lifts into eastern 
Kansas and then weakens as it lifts into northern Missouri Sunday 
night. Some weak instability is progged by the models Sunday night 
resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

This lead wave is out ahead of a broader trough that will progress 
from the western conus on Monday into the into the Plains by Tuesday 
and lingering into Thursday as it deepens over Missouri. As a 
result, it looks like a rather unsettled period from Monday through 
Thursday, with periodic rain chances. Overall, temperatures will be 
on the mild side with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s through 
the period and lows mainly in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

VFR conditions are expected through Friday. Broken mid and high 
level clouds will persist overnight and early Friday morning
before gradual clearing takes place throughout the day.

Winds will become brisk and gusty out of the northwest on Friday
with gusts over 30 knots expected.


MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ097-098-106.



SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding