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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 171135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
635 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) 
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

An area of showers with a few rumbles of thunder continues to
transition across portion of southeast Kansas and west central
Missouri this morning. This area of activity is associated with a
quick moving wave of energy coming out of Southern Plains. Given
the lack of both a strong thermodynamic and dynamic environment, 
there is no associated risk for severe weather. However, it 
should be noted that this area of showers is moving across a 
rather soggy southeast Kansas from previous days rain. Thus, any 
efficient rainfall could produce additional runoff and minor 
flooding issues.

As this shortwave energy continues to translate through the 
region through the early morning hours, scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will remain possible. It appears the best chance for
showers and thunderstorms will exist across the eastern half of 
the CWA through the afternoon and early evening. This will be a 
focus for potentially heavy rainfall in slow moving storms along a
boundary and efficient rain producers (PWATs around 1.6). This 
activity is expected to dissipate to the east by late Monday 
evening. Expect temperatures to climb to around 80 for most of 
Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday) 
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Expect drier conditions through most of the day Tuesday before
additional waves of shortwave energy begin to sweep across the
Central Plains Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Models continue to
differ on timing of this system arriving Tuesday evening, yet are
in a consensus that another complex of showers and thunderstorms
will transition through the region in the Tuesday night through
Wednesday timeframe from west to east. Based on recent model
guidance, there appears to be a marginal risk for strong to severe
storms on Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. This threat
for a few strong to severe storms will need to be reevaluated with
future model guidance. It is anticipated that this activity will
slowly move through the CWA and may linger into the afternoon 
hours Wednesday, especially across the eastern half of the region.
Expect temperatures to be in the lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.

As heights begin to rise and a ridge develops across the eastern 
CONUS into Thursday, expect temperatures to rise into the middle 
80s with drier conditions. This trend will continue through 
Saturday as highs climb into the upper 80s, possibly pushing 90.

The next chance for rain returns to the region by late Sunday into
Monday as additional waves of shortwave energy look to translate
across the area. However, medium range model guidance are not in
agreement on exact timing, location, and intensity. Looking ahead
through next week, a strong negative PNA teleconnection is 
forecast and would suggest a continued wet pattern as repetitive 
shortwaves are able to transition through the region with a 
supportive Gulf airmass being funneled in. While teleconnections 
do not dictate all the factors of forecasting potential future 
rainfall, it does provide supportive evidence.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the region with 
flight conditions falling to MVFR to occasionally IFR through 
this morning. Rain and storms will continue into this afternoon 
though rain will begin to move to the east. Despite the rain 
exiting late this afternoon and evening, ceilings will improve to 
VFR but visibilities will begin to become restricted to MVFR.