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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 212335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
635 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Scattered thunderstorms have once again developed this afternoon
across south-central Missouri as daytime heating has eroded a 
capping inversion. We expect coverage to gradually increase as 
outflows begin to spread out. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail
up to the size of quarters will be possible with a few of these 
cells into this evening.

Meanwhile, thunderstorms will begin to develop late this afternoon
and especially this evening from eastern Kansas into central
Missouri along a slowly advancing cold front. Thunderstorm
coverage will then expand from late this evening into the 
overnight period as a low level jet overrides that front. The 
potential for a few strong to severe storms will remain, 
especially with any progressive line segments diving towards the 
east or southeast.

The synoptic scale environment appears favorable for training
thunderstorms with high rainfall rates from tonight into early
Thursday morning. Isentropic upglide in the low and mid levels of
the atmosphere will become juxtaposed with the right-entrance 
region of an upper level jet stream. This deep tropospheric ascent
in conjunction with precipitable water values around two inches 
will set the stage for potential flash flooding from eastern 
Kansas into central Missouri. After collaboration with surrounding
offices, we have issued a Flash Flood Watch generally along and
north of a Columbus, Kansas to Bolivar to Rolla, Missouri line.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms should then decrease from
later Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. However, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will certainly remain possible as that
surface front slowly slides south across the area. Temperatures
will be much cooler on Thursday with highs in the lower to middle
80s over most areas. Areas of south-central Missouri may still
manage to warm into the upper 80s if storms are later to arrive.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms will then
remain possible from Thursday night into Friday as that front
continues to slowly settle south. The best chances for storms
should be from southeastern Kansas into southern Missouri. We will
have to monitor for the potential for heavy rainfall again on 
Thursday night, however it is unclear where key synoptic scale 
features (such as the low level jet) will set up.

Chances for thunderstorms are then expected to linger into Friday
night and Saturday. Confidence has actually increased regarding
this scenario as models indicate short wave energy moving across
the northern and central Plains, effectively stalling the 850 mb 
front from eastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri.

Confidence in precipitation chances from Sunday into Monday is
rather low as global models have now trended towards that front 
remaining stalled in the same general region. We have nudged PoPs 
upwards a bit into the 20-30% range and will continue to monitor 

Global models then indicate another decent front moving through
sometime in the Monday night through Tuesday night time frame.
This should keep the potential for showers and storms going.

Temperatures from late this week into this weekend should remain
below normal. Highs may then nudge back up into the middle and
upper 80s early next week before that next potential front comes 


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Showers and storms were impacting portions of the region this
evening and are expected to continue and expand overnight. Where
storms move over the regions terminals, flight conditions will
likely fall to MVFR with visibilities and ceilings otherwise VFR 
ceilings with thunderstorms developing across the region will 
bring occasional surface wind shifts. 

Thunderstorms are expected to continue into Thursday afternoon
with the main activity slowly moving south of the region during 
the afternoon and evening hours. 


MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ093-095>098-

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ055>058-

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann