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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 222314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

An upper level ridge is situated across the area this afternoon 
with an upper level trough moving through the intermountain west 
at this time. This trough will be the next weather system to 
affect the area. At the surface...a cold front is situated in the 
lee of the Rockies. 

Clouds will be on the increase overnight as this trough moves out
into the Central Plains. Should start to see rain develop from 
west to east towards sunrise as moisture continues to advect into
the region. Could have enough instability present for some 
isolated thunder in southern sections of the area late Saturday 

Will see a bit of a temperature gradient overnight with lows in
the eastern sections in the mid 30s while lows may only make it
into the mid 40s in extreme southeast Kansas with the increasing
warm air advection and cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

As the trough makes its way across the region Saturday night into
Sunday...instability will increase which will increase the
thunderstorm chances. There is a limited risk of strong to
isolated severe storms in the southwest corner of Missouri during
the day on Sunday with large hail and damaging wind being the
primary threat.  

The cold front moves through the area late Sunday with most of the
rain ending by late evening. Colder air behind the front will 
allow lows on Monday night to drop back into the 30s. With the 
passage of this trough...the upper level pattern will become more 
progressive allowing temperatures to moderate through the 
remainder of the week. Highs by late week will approach 70 degrees
in the western sections and the mid 60s in the east with 
overnight lows ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Another system
then approaches the area late in the week increasing rain chances
on Thursday and Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

For the 00z TAFS...Should see cloud cover slowly increase tonight,
but will take awhile for the lower levels to saturate. Eventually
rain will work into the area on Saturday by mid to late morning at
the terminal locations. Currently am keeping in VFR conditions,
but could see some MVFR with heavier showers. Wind will start off
with light and variable, eventually becoming southeast which will
favor stronger wind gusts at SGF with upslope funnel effect. Have
SGF with 20 gusting to 28 kts on Saturday.