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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 231043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
543 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

..12z TAF Update..

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

No real forecast challenges in the short term as a modified
Canadian air mass has settled into the Central Plains. The dry and
stable nature of this air mass will pitch a shutout against any
shower or thunderstorm activity today.

Temperatures will only warm into the upper 70s to low 80s this
afternoon--about ten degrees below normal. Meanwhile, overnight 
temperatures will dip into the upper 50s to low 60s. Surface high
pressure builds directly overtop of us late tonight into Wednesday
morning. This will shut off the winds, and, with relatively moist
soils from recent rainfall, light patchy fog cannot be ruled out.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

The synoptic pattern begins to change Wednesday, but only subtle
changes are expected in the forecast through Sunday. In short, 
weather conditions will remain dry with a gradual warming trend 
Wednesday through Sunday. The models then hint that rain will
return for Monday.

A strong 300- mb jet streak will exit the Gulf of Alaska and push
a robust 500- mb shortwave trough onshore the Pacific Northwest by
Wednesday morning. This shortwave will flatten out mid-level
heights (squash the ridge) across the western CONUS. At the
surface, high pressure will quickly build into the eastern Great
Lakes region on Thursday. This will cause surface winds across the
Missouri Ozarks to veer to the southwest by Friday. As mid-level
heights begin to increase across our area underneath modest 850- 
mb warm air advection, surface temperatures and dewpoints will
inch closer to their seasonal norms by the weekend. The net result
will be a continued period of dry weather with a gradual bump in
temperatures and humidity each day Wednesday through Sunday. Daily
temperatures will slowly trend upward from 80 to 90 during this 
forecast period as overnight lows go from 60 to 70.

Rain chances return as early as Monday. The GFS and ECMWF are
actually in decent agreement as another robust 500- mb shortwave 
trough moves onshore the Pacific Northwest. In response, a surface
cyclone will eject out of the Northern Rockies and move towards
Lake Superior. The attendant cold front is progged (by both
deterministic models) to move through the Missouri Ozarks and
southeast Kansas sometime Monday. By then, moisture and
instability will have returned. Thus, showers and thunderstorms
are a possibility.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

A strong summertime area of surface high pressure has built into
the region. This feature will yield VFR conditions throughout 
this TAF period as dry weather and light surface winds can be 

Some light patchy fog is a possibility overnight, namely in the 
06-12z timeframe. Confidence is too low at this time to mention it
at any of the TAF sites.




LONG TERM...Albano