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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

                            
000
FXUS63 KSGF 182322
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
622 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Not much change form the past few days: Hot with a few afternoon 
showers. Visible satellite imagery shows some clusters of cumulus 
have developed and the HRRR shows some very isolated pulse showers
through sunset, mainly in counties along/east of Missouri Hwy 13. 

Similar conditions are expected Thursday with maybe a slight 
uptick in afternoon shower activity. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) 
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Heavy rain potential with a moisture rich Gulf air mass and the
remains of TS Imelda are the main concern for this period. 

Friday-Weekend: Moisture return will begin to impact the region 
Friday. We will see increased coverage of showers and a few storms
as pwat's increase to an unseasonably high 1.8 inches (varies 
based on guidance). Mechanisms for deep lift will be lacking
Friday, but any showers that do develop will likely be efficient 
rain producers. The overall rain coverage will increase into the 
weekend as pwats increase to close to 2.0 inches in some areas and
the moisture begins to interact with a front moving south into 
eastern KS and northern MO by Saturday night. That front begins to
wash out/weaken by Sunday/Monday as it moves south into our area.
The best chances for heavy rain looks to be late Saturday night 
through Sunday night. Went with a model blend which has 2-4 inches
of rain along/north of I-44 then gradually lesser amounts to the 
southeast. 

Monday-Wednesday: Models vary quite a bit with a shortwave 
expected to move through (or into) the western CONUS during this 
period. The operational GFS is stronger and farther east with a 
closed low into the central/southern High Plains by late Tue 
versus the GFS ensembles and ECMWF which hold back the shortwave 
much farther west. Really don't have a good feel at all how much 
rain we will see for this period, but in general the GFS looks too
bullish for rain. The model blend in the forecast database is on 
the higher end of rainfall amounts versus most guidance. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Continued quiet weather thanks to a ridge across the region. There
could be some diurnal showers and storms Thursday afternoon, but
coverage appears quite limited so did not include that in the TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

                 Today      Thursday
Springfield     94/1960      96/1954
Joplin          96/1952      98/1954
West Plains     96/1972      97/1954
Rolla/Vichy     95/1953     100/1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Titus
CLIMATE...Schaumann