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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Charleston, WV (RLX)

                            
000
FXUS61 KRLX 161952
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
252 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak and dry cold front exits east of the Appalachians this 
evening. High pressure Saturday. Another cold front Sunday 
night. Weak high pressure early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM Friday...

Wind reports show wind gusts have subside below 25 mph this 
afternoon, and will continue to diminish tonight. Therefore, the
Wind Advisory for the northeast mountains has been cancelled. 

As of 219 PM Friday...

Weak and dry cold front exits our eastern mountains this evening. 
Expect just low level clouds with and behind the front to 
affect mainly the northern half of our cwa and the eastern 
mountains overnight. Models consensus indicate H850 and BL 
winds will decrease tonight as a High pressure moves in from the
west. Therefore, expect some wind gusts along the higher 
terrain through at least midnight, then decreasing as the a high
pressure moves in relaxing the pressure gradient at the sfc. 

Went with the NBM guidance for low tonight. Expect temps to drop 
into the lower 30s lowlands, and to the mid 20s highest peaks. Lower 
temperatures could result where sky clears overnight. In
addition, the majority of the guidance suggest clear skies
prevailing across the southern half of our cwa. If this
materialize, then patchy dense fog could be possible mainly 
along river valleys south of a line from HTS, CRW, and BKW. 

High pressure moves in early Saturday with pleasant temperatures 
ranging from the mid 40s northern sections, to low 50s southern coal 
fields, and upper 30s at elevation at or higher than 3 kft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Friday...

Mid and high level clouds will stream in ahead of the next s/w 
trof Saturday night. Lift will increase as the trof and cold 
front approaches Sunday night, with a band of light precip 
developing behind the front. Some of this may take the form of 
a mix with a wet snow flakes across northern counties, but 
should not amount to much. 

This system pushes out Monday with lingering clouds. Another 
weak impulse fast on its heels may bring the threat for light 
scattered showers back into the area Monday night and early 
Tuesday.

Temperatures will run normal to slightly below normal Sunday 
and Monday, with a more substantial cool down for midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 PM Friday...

The base of an upper level trough grazes the CWA by midweek,
sending down a cold front that will likely have a lack in 
moisture needed in order to support much in the way of shower
development when it passes through. Stout high pressure will 
build over the Mid-Atlantic towards the end of the work week, 
placing the region in a southerly flow pattern that will aid in
welcoming back more seasonable temperatures for this time of 
year.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

Satellite imagery shows clearing spreading from south to north
for starting VFR conditions over HTS, BKW and the southern
portions of WV this afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak FROPA crosses 
early this afternoon to widespread mainly low level clouds. The 
exception will be over the extreme southern WV where clouds 
could be higher. 

Upstream METARs indicate MVFR ceilings along weak FROPA roughly
along the OH River, and moving southeast. Widespread MVFR
ceilings will persist tonight into early Saturday morning. PKB,
HTS and CRW will be on MVFR ceilings by 19-20Z, to spread into 
BKW CKB and EKN by 21-23Z.

Most of guidance show clear skies across the southern half of
the area overnight. If this materializes, patchy dense fog could
develop along the southern river valleys of WV, and extreme
southwest VA from 07-13Z Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restriction changes may vary.
MVFR ceilings could become high IFR at some places overnight. 

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in stratus and/or fog Sunday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...ARJ