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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Charleston, WV (RLX)

                            
212 
FXUS61 KRLX 190207
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
907 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front late tonight into Monday. Cold front midweek brings 
showers and storms. Front stalls through the end of the week, 
with significant rainfall possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 905 PM Sunday...

Temperatures are radiating fairly well this evening so will
lower overnight low temperatures. Should see a non-diurnal curve
with temperatures rising as clouds come in and winds pick up
later tonight. 


As of 1025 AM Sunday...

High pressure crosses overhead this afternoon providing clear skies 
and warm temperatures into the lower 50s lowlands, ranging to the 
mid 40s higher elevations. 

As the high pressure moves east of the mountains, flow will turn 
southwest bringing a warm front with its associated warmer and 
moist air to our area. However, prefer the NAM and SREF models 
being slower with the QPF than the GFS and ECMWF. In addition, 
the preferred models indicate that the pcpn will split with 
maximum to the east and west of the central area. Therefore, 
went with higher PoPs across southeast OH and the eastern 
mountain counties. Rainfall amounts does not seems to pose a 
flooding threat at this time. 

The areas of pcpn will tapper off from south to north Monday 
allowing plenty of sunshine and temperatures to climb into the lower 
70s lowlands, ranging to the mid 50s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM Sunday...

Warm air advection behind a warm front for Tuesday. This will
send our temperatures soaring into the 80s across much of the
region. Several record high temperatures could possibly be
broken. A cold front will approach the region on Wednesday and
shower/thunderstorms will be possible. Best chance looks to be
in the Ohio Valley, where any additional rainfall will be
problematic, especially of the convective nature. Will have to
watch for the how far east the boundary makes it on Wednesday.
Still some disagreement among the models on when the heaviest
rainfall will enter the region. One thing of note, is the GEFS
is indicating highly anomalous PWATs of 3 to 4 standard
deviations by Wednesday afternoon in the Ohio Valley. With the 
available moisture in place, any convection could lead to flash 
flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM Sunday...

Confidence is starting to grow in the long term for a potential
high impactful rainfall event. As mentioned in the short term
discussion, a cold front will push into the region Wednesday 
afternoon or evening. This front will not make it very far and
guidance eventually has it stalling out in the vicinity of the
Ohio Valley. Deep moist SW flow will pump continuous moisture
into the area. Still too early to exactly say where the highest
rainfall axis will be, but models are starting to hone in on the
Ohio Valley. Potential exists for possibly as much as 2 to 4
inches of rainfall, which would cause major flooding issues 
across the area. Although the Ohio River is forecast to come out
of flood stage over the next couple days, it is possible we 
will be looking at a similar or worse situation by this time 
next weekend if this pattern holds true.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 605 PM Sunday...

A warm front will lift northward across the area late tonight
into Monday. This front will provide some restrictions in
ceilings and rain. With a southeast wind flow, expect
the lowest restrictions over southeastern WV, with the least
restrictions just west of the mountains in the downslope flow. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this evening, then medium.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions with the warm front could be 
lower than forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY
SHORT TERM...MPK/AB
LONG TERM...MPK/AB
AVIATION...RPY