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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Raleigh, NC (RAH)

                            
000
FXUS62 KRAH 210456
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1256 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the southeastern US to Bermuda 
through the weekend. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 PM Friday...

Cool surface high pressure will settle across the southern Mid-
Atlantic coast tonight, while mid/upper level ridging extends into 
the region from the Deep South. This will result in another dry and 
cool night, with possibly some patchy fog possible across eastern 
portions of the area and in/around water bodies. Low temps will drop 
into the lower to mid 50s again, with possibly some upper 40s in the 
usual rural cold spots, thanks to excellent radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Friday... 

Synoptically, little will change on Saturday across central NC. The 
upper-ridge will be a bit closer to the region, edging into the 
southern Piedmont zones, with the surface high sitting just off the 
Carolina Coast. This will help to establish a southeasterly/ 
southerly component to the relatively light surface winds with a 
gradual yet weak WAA regime beginning to setup across the 
southeastern CONUS. Afternoon high temperatures will be a 3 to 6 
degrees warmer, topping out in the middle 80s by Saturday afternoon. 
With a relatively dry airmass remaining in place, expect a pretty 
healthy diurnal range in temperatures, with overnight lows settling 
in the middle to upper 50s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

The dry forecast is expected to continue through the week. While a 
front is expected to cross the region Monday night, both 
deterministic and ensemble members show precipitation occurring to 
the northwest, then fading out as the front crosses. This will be 
partially because the parent low is far enough to the north to not 
provide much in the way of dynamics, but also because the lowest 
five thousand feet of the atmosphere will be quite dry. While highs 
may drop a degree or two behind the front on Tuesday, flow out of 
the west and southwest will allow temperatures to rise higher by 
Thursday and Friday, with many locations reaching 90 degrees. 
Similar to yesterday, the day 7 forecast once again has the GFS 
bringing a front through the area, while the ECMWF keeps high 
pressure over the area. Will go with the status quo dry forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1255 AM Friday... 

Under the influence of Canadian high pressure, mainly VFR conditions 
are expected through tonight. However, in a persistence pattern 
(like last night), shallow and localized radiation fog will be 
likely again after 06Z mainly at RWI. Otherwise, initially calm 
surface wind will be become light swly with diurnal heating/after 13-
14Z.

Outlook: Persietence fog will remain possible at RWI and perhaps FAY 
each morning through Mon, while high pressure will otherwise yield 
continued VFR conditions. A dry cold front will cross the area Mon 
night, with following weak high pressure --and continued VFR 
conditions-- through the middle of next week. 

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...TAG
AVIATION...MWS