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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Pueblo, CO (PUB)

FXUS65 KPUB 192135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
335 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...High Fire Danger and Possible Severe Storms across portions of 
Southeast Colorado on Friday... 

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating 
moderate southwest flow aloft across the area as a broad upper 
trough continues to dig into the Great Basin, with an embedded short 
wave translating across southeastern Arizona at this time. At the 
surface, induced lee low near La Junta is keeping breezy south to 
southeast winds and dew pts in the 50s across the far southeast 
plains, as dew pts further west have mixed out into the upper 20s to 
upper 30s across the I-25 Corridor. Regional radars are indicating 
scattered storms across the far southeast plains, with isolated to 
scattered showers and storms lifting northeast across west central 
New Mexico at this time.  

This afternoon...With low level moisture across the far southeast 
plains and a few more hours of heating, should continue to see 
storms lifting north and east into western Kansas through the late 
afternoon and early evening. SPC meso analysis has mixed layer capes 
of 1000-2000 j/kg across the far southeast plains at this time, 
however, lack of mid level flow and shear remains a limiting factor 
for super cell development. 

For tonight and Friday...Long wave trough digging into the Great 
Basin remains progged to start to lift out across eastern Utah 
tonight and into western Wyoming through the day tomorrow. This 
will allow for increasing southwest flow across the region tonight
which becomes more westerly into tomorrow afternoon. Models 
continue to indicate increasing in mid level moisture and lift 
ahead of the embedded short wave keeping scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms across the area tonight into early Friday 
morning, with the best coverage along and west of the ContDvd. 
Snow levels to remain high (aoa 12,000 ft) though can not rule out
some light snow across the higher peaks along the Divide. Breezy 
southwest winds expected to mix down across the lower elevations 
through the day tomorrow helping to mix out low level moisture and
creating a dryline across the far southeast Plains. Convergence 
along this boundary, along with stronger mid level flow, could 
help develop late afternoon thunderstorms, some of which could be 
strong to severe, producing large hail and damaging winds. SPC Day
2 Outlook continues to indicate much of southeast Colorado east 
of the I-25 Corridor in a marginal risk. West of the boundary, 
fire danger will be increased with spotty red flag conditions 
expected along and west of the I-25 Corridor. However, red flag 
conditions do not look to be widespread enough or of a long enough
duration to issue a Red Flag Warning. However, with well above 
seasonal temperatures in the 80s and 90s, combined with low 
afternoon humidity levels and gusty winds, any outdoor burning 
should not be planned. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Recent longer range models suggest that precipitation will be on
a decreasing trend Friday evening before ending Friday night over
the CWA. 

Then, a relatively moist northerly component surface surge is 
expected to move across eastern sections from later Saturday into 
Saturday night, increasing the potential for showers and 
thunderstorms over primarily eastern locations of the CWA during 
the Saturday evening into Saturday night time-frame and have 
reflected this potential in grids and zones. 

Transitory upper ridging should then provide southern Colorado 
with dry conditions from Sunday into Sunday night in advance of 
next upper system potentially impacting southern Colorado from 
Monday into possibly Tuesday, with recent computer simulations 
keeping primary precipitation focus with this system generally 
to the south and east of the CWA during this time-frame. 

Outside of basically isolated afternoon and evening showers and 
thunderstorms, majority of CWA should experience generally dry 
conditions on Wednesday and Thursday. 

Regarding winds, at this time, the highest potential for gusty 
gradient winds during the longer term should be experienced from 
Friday evening into Friday night, later Saturday into Saturday 
night, Tuesday night and then again by later next Thursday.

Elevated/localized fire weather threats during the longer term 
are also anticipated at times from this weekend into Monday. 

Regarding temperatures, generally above seasonal later September 
temperatures should be realized over the majority of the CWA 
during the balance of the longer term, with coolest conditions 
projected this weekend, with warmest temperatures expected by the
middle of next week. In addition, the potential exists that below
freezing temperatures may occur over the San Luis Valley by 
Sunday morning and if latest trends continue, freeze highlights 
may become warranted.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

VFR conditions expected at COS and PUB over the next 24 hours, with 
breezy south to southeast winds 10-15kts expected through the 
afternoon. Increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of a passing upper 
trough will allow for gusty south to southwest winds 15-30kts to 
develop Friday morning and continue through the rest of the TAF 

Mainly VFR conditions expected at ALS over the next 24 hours, with 
breezy southerly winds 10-15kts through the afternoon. Increasing 
southwest flow aloft and lift ahead of a passing upper trough will 
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across the 
higher terrain west of the terminal late this afternoon, with 
showers and a few possible storms continuing through the overnight 
hours. A few showers could move off the higher terrain and across 
the San Luis Valley through the overnight hours, though will keep 
VCSH in taf at this time. Gusty southwest winds 15-30kts to develop 
Friday morning, which will continue through the rest of the Taf