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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Pueblo, CO (PUB)

                            
000
FXUS65 KPUB 262134
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
334 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Currently...

Analysis of GOES water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low just 
off the Northwest US coast with ridging centered over southwest 
Texas. Between the two large scale features over Colorado is 
relatively weak southwest flow with subtle embedded energy. Day RGB 
imagery shows mid to upper level clouds over the forecast area, 
indicating the presence of lift associated with the large scale 
energy. Cumulus clouds have had difficulty developing over the high 
terrain this afternoon despite strong heating, a result of very dry 
low levels. Dry and gusty southwest winds are slowly mixing east 
across the I-25 corridor, while dew points over the far eastern 
plains are in the mid 50s. Steep lapse rates and marginal low level 
moisture has yielded abundant CAPE over the far eastern tier of 
counties, while EBSHEAR is still only 25-30 knots. Temperatures 
across the plains are right around 90 in most locations, including 
Colorado Springs, while the high valleys are in the 70s to low 80s.

Tonight...

The dryline will continue to mix east late this afternoon into the 
early evening, with isolated convective development expected over 
the far eastern plains. Storms have the potential to be strong to 
severe considering strong instability, but weak shear will limit the 
threat. Given deep inverted-V profiles yielding very high DCAPE, 
strong downdraft wind gusts will be the primary threat, with a lower 
probability of hail as well. Most of the rest of the forecast area 
should remain dry considering very dry low levels, with only 
isolated high-based showers or a weak thunderstorm producing gusty 
winds at the surface. Winds will remain gusty and out of the 
southwest for much of the area through early evening, with winds 
weakening and precip activity ending by around 9 PM. Low 
temperatures this evening will be in the low 60s across the plains, 
and 40s in the high valleys.

Tomorrow...

Tomorrow, the large scale features will remain largely unchanged 
with the broad trough over the northwest US and ridge established 
over the southern Rockies and plains. Increased atmospheric moisture 
will wrap around the base of the ridge and into southern Colorado by 
Thursday afternoon. The increasing moisture combined with 
convergence along the lee trough is forecast to yield isolated to 
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southern Sangres 
and Las Animas and Baca Counties. These storms could be strong with 
gusty downdraft winds and small hail given the increasing moisture 
and steep lapse rates, but very weak shear will keep them sub-
severe. Shower and thunderstorm coverage should be more isolated 
across the rest of the forecast area with brief gusty downdraft 
winds possible at the surface.

Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs around 100 across 
the plains, 90 in Colorado Springs, and 80s in the high valleys. 
Critical fire weather condition will again be possible across the 
high valleys and plains, but fuels remain non-critical.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019

An upper ridge will be centered from the central plains states to 
northern Mexico Fri through Sun, while an upper low remains just off 
the Pacific Northwest coast.  On Friday, moisture is expected to be 
somewhat limited over the area and mainly just isolated 
showers/tstms will be possible along the southern border and over 
and near the higher terrain.  Temps will still be quite warm with 
highs in the 90s to lower 100s over the plains, and in the 80s in 
the high valleys.  Beginning Sat, a better tap of moisture from the 
south is expected, and this will continue through Sun.  Thus, there 
will be higher chances for showers/tstms Sat and Sun, especially 
west of the I-25 corridor.  Temps on Sat will be similar to those on 
Fri, but Sun should be slightly cooler over the southeast plains as 
a front is expected to move through the area.

Mon a disturbance is expected to move across the area, and moisture 
will still be in place, leading to a high probability of 
shower/tstms from the I-25 corridor and westward, with mainly 
isolated chance over the far southeast plains.  Temps on Mon will be 
a little cooler, with 80s to lower 90s for highs across the 
southeast plains, and 70s to near 80 in the high valleys.

Tue the upper low over the Pacific Northwest, is forecast to begin 
moving eastward, and moves across MT on Wed.  Another disturbance 
may move across the area on Tue and then upper ridging is in place 
briefly for Wed.  There will still be scattered to numerous 
showers/tstms over the mtns and high valleys on Tue and Wed, with 
possibly some isolated precip over the southeast plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 332 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2019

VFR and dry conditions are expected at the three TAF sites (KALS, 
KCOS, KPUB) over the next 24 hours. Gusty southwest winds are 
expected at the three sites through early this evening, and again 
tomorrow afternoon, with the possibility of slightly stronger gusts 
and direction changes in the presence of a nearby 
shower or thunderstorm outflow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LINE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...LINE