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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Pueblo, CO (PUB)

                            
000
FXUS65 KPUB 192147
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
347 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Southern Colorado graced by dry conditions in combination with near 
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures as well as some localized 
gusty winds early this afternoon as evidenced by recent wind gusts 
around 40 mph near Aguilar and Bear Creek respectively.   

The potential still exists that isolated higher-based 
thunderstorms(per inverted-V soundings) may develop from later this 
afternoon into this evening(favoring southern locations) and have 
depicted this potential in grids.  

Otherwise, dry conditions in combination with near to above seasonal 
minimum temperatures should be experienced over the majority of 
the CWA from later this evening into tonight.  

For Thursday, generally dry conditions(outside of primarily higher-
based isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring eastern 
locations) are anticipated as zonal to southwesterly upper flow 
interacts with surface low developing near Kim during Thursday 
afternoon. 

Forecast model soundings and computer models also indicate the 
warmer forecast maximum temperatures should be realized Thursday 
with maximum temperatures climbing into the 90s over many eastern 
locations.  

Finally, increasing winds should also be noted over the majority of 
southern Colorado, primarily from the afternoon into the evening 
hours on Thursday. 

Also, existing hydro highlights will be maintained due to continued 
fast and high flows in creeks, streams and rivers.  

Finally, increasing winds should also be noted over the majority of 
southern Colorado, primarily from the afternoon into the evening 
hours on Thursday. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...Cooler and more Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

Thursday night-Friday night...Increasing southwest flow aloft is 
progged across the region through Friday night, as an unseasonably 
strong upper level system digs across the Intermountain West and 
into the Great Basin. The downslope flow will help to keep breezy 
west to southwest winds across the region Thursday night and through 
the day Friday, especially over and near the higher terrain. This 
will keep overnight temperatures on the mild side with lows mainly 
in the 40s and 50s areawide, along with boosting highs back to at 
and above seasonal levels in the 80s to mid 90s across the Plains on 
Friday. Isolated storms will remain possible across the higher 
terrain and Palmer Dvd Thursday evening, with showers and storms 
remaining possible along and west of the ContDvd, Thursday night and 
increasing through the day Friday, especially across the Central 
Mts into the Pikes Peak Region, with increasing moisture and lift 
ahead of the digging system. Models also continue to indicate a 
frontal boundary, across the northern High Plains Thursday night, 
backing into eastern Colorado through the day on Friday, with low 
level moisture pooling along and behind this boundary leading to 
the potential for scattered storms, with the best potential along 
and north of the Palmer Dvd. 

Saturday-Sunday...Models continue to differ on the strength and 
location of this unseasonably strong weather system lifting out 
across the Rockies through the upcoming weekend, with the GFS still 
the strongest and farthest south with a closed mid level low digging 
into southern Utah on Saturday, before lifting out across western 
Colorado, with the latest runs of the ECMWF and NAM farther north 
and not as strong, though are stronger and farther south than their 
previous solutions. The differing large scale solutions lead to 
differing possible weather solutions, especially with the potential 
for deep moist convection and possible severe storms across the 
Plains on Saturday. The farther south GFS solution would keep the 
southeast Plains dry-slotted with best convection potential north 
and east across northeastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas, where 
as the farther north solutions would allow for the surface boundary 
to be farther south across the southeast Plains, leading to better 
chances of storms across the area on Saturday. At this time, stayed 
with a blended model solution, which keeps better chances of storms 
across the area. Either way, there looks be good chances of showers 
and storms across the higher terrain, especially along and west of 
the ContDvd through the period. This, along with the unseasonably 
strong and cold system, will likely bring some more accumulating 
snowfall to the higher peaks through the weekend, with overnight 
lows in the 30s and 40s across the area, with highs in the 60s and 
70s across the Plains and mainly 40s and 50s across the higher 
terrain through the weekend. Those planning outdoor activities 
across the higher terrain should plan for well below seasonal 
temperatures through the weekend, with the coldest day being Sunday. 
 
Monday-Wedensday...A warmer and drier pattern remains in the offing 
as a large ridge of high pressure is forecast to build into the 
Rockies through the beginning of the week and become entrenched 
across the area by the middle and end of next week. This will bring 
steady warming back to above seasonal levels through the middle of 
the next week, with more isolated diurnal convective activity.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Outside of isolated later afternoon higher-based showers and 
thunderstorms possible near the KCOS and KPUB taf sites, expect VFR 
conditions to continue over the KALS...KCOS and KPUB taf sites 
during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for COZ065>068-070-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...77