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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Pocatello, ID (PIH)

                            
903 
FXUS65 KPIH 191935
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
135 PM MDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies tonight and early Friday. Our attention 
then turns to a low moving into British Columbia on Friday. Winds 
aloft begin to turn more southwesterly and bring more of the moist 
subtropical air north into Idaho. A few evening thunderstorms will 
probably develop along our southern border area from Oakley to Bear 
Lake. Satellite shows the deeper moist air over Utah moving east and 
current models are brining less moisture into Idaho, although it 
still does make it up here on Saturday. The amount of rain may be 
less. Both the NAM and GFS develop convection along bands, not in 
the same place or at the same time, making the forecast difficult. 
One of these bands develops Friday night and continues northward to 
the Montana line by Saturday morning. Best shot is there will be 
another band develop on Saturday somewhere between Bear lake and 
Palisades. There is a frontal feature ahead of the low and extending 
from Saskatchewan, through Montana to Idaho. Other than some 
mountain winds, it does not look like a lot of winds in the lower 
valleys, we'll be watching this. Once the low in British Columbia
moves off to the east, that pool of moist and unstable air will 
remain very close to the Idaho/Utah border, and there remains a 
risk of thunderstorms into early next week. One last issue is 
heat. Temperatures measured at The Pocatello Region Airport are 
working on 16 days of highs at or above 90F and we may add a few 
more to this run. The record is 22 consecutive days set back in 
2000. RS 

&&

.AVIATION...Gusty winds winds are possible into the evening. However 
expect winds to go light by late evening and continue through the 
overnight hours. May see some cirrus drift into the region tonight.

Valle

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy conditions remain possible into the early 
evening but wind gusts will remain below critical levels. Isolated 
thunderstorms will be possible beginning Friday night and persist 
through the weekend. Breezy conditions will be possible on Saturday 
as well as a weak front moves through the region. Looks like both 
coverage for storms and winds will remain below critical levels, 
with no fire weather watches currently planned.

Valle

&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$