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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Pocatello, ID (PIH)

FXUS65 KPIH 201014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
314 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. With what's left of
yesterday's storm slow to move east, pockets of light snow will 
persist across the southeast corner today north to Palisades 
Reservoir with light accumulations. We are still dealing with 
what's left of the convergence band from Driggs back toward 
Pocatello. It looked like it was done, BUT the southern end 
redeveloped near Blackfoot in the past couple of hours and is 
dropping south. Even if it gets to around Pocatello, anything out 
of it will be light (and maybe nothing more than a few flurries). 
Otherwise, a few showers are possible across the peaks elsewhere 
with drier conditions moving in briefly. The models are indicating
pockets of stratus tonight and Sunday morning across the Snake 
Plain and have included that especially from Burley through 
Blackfoot. It's possible that under calm conditions we could see 
it being more widespread than that. It's something to keep an eye 
on and adjust later. The potential of fog is even less at the 
moment, but if we get enough snowmelt...it could certainly happen 
and be monitored as well this afternoon and evening. 

The next storm arrives Sunday evening and persists into Monday.
This one doesn't look too impressive at the moment as we are on 
the tail end of it, as it moves along the US/Canada border. We
should see mostly snow Sunday night, with any location getting
into the mid 30s to near 40 at least going a rain/snow mix
briefly Monday afternoon. The latest and greatest forecast shows 
1-3" (including the mountains) Sunday night and Monday. There will
be some gusty winds, BUT impacts/risk associated with any 
blowing/drifting doesn't look high enough to be an issue. Keyes

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday. Extended period remains 
dominated with amplified Pacific trough shifting inland. Monday 
night through Tuesday night characterized by building ridge, 
although a few showers remain possible over higher elevations 
behind departing Monday system. Otherwise expect temperatures to 
warm slightly into Wednesday. Onset of next batch of precipitation
could arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon in western and 
central portions of the state, leaving the Snake Plain and eastern
highlands relatively dry. Since models agree on trough deepening 
as it shifts toward coast, this looks to delay spread of 
precipitation east across the remainder of the region until 
Thursday. Thus best chance for most of the region to see moisture 
looks to be Thursday through Thursday night. Temps could be warm 
enough during the daytime Thursday for a mixed bag of precip, but 
otherwise snow is expected. Drying trend in place Friday, with 
Saturday characterized by cool generally dry ridge across the 
region. DMH


.AVIATION...Trough axis remains overhead today so expect generally 
mid cloud to continue streaming over the region. Observations and 
area web cams show some stratus underneath the moisture stream, and 
would expect that to continue into early morning with occasional 
MVFR ceilings. Would not be surprised to see a few flurries out of 
it, especially with potential remnants of convergent band from last 
evening lingering in eastern highlands, but widespread persistent 
snowfall isn't expected. Thus expect conditions to be VFR at all 
sites for today. As the mid deck clears out of the region later 
today, redevelopment of stratus/fog will be possible, and will trend 
terminals in that direction for after 06Z tonight. DMH