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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Pocatello, ID (PIH)

FXUS65 KPIH 181947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
147 PM MDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday. High pressure remains in
control through Saturday night. Upper low currently over four-
corners remains too far south/east to have much of an impact even
on the Bear Lake region. Moisture spilling over the top of the
ridge may bring a few pockets of clouds to the central mountains,
otherwise continue to expect gradually rising temperatures.
Pattern begins to shift late Saturday with flow aloft turning to
the south in response to deepening low over southern Great Basin.
This feature expected to pull moisture out of Mexico north through
Utah Saturday night through Sunday. Deepest moisture expected to
remain south of the state line through Sunday, though have kept
barest hint of precip chances in regions along the Utah border for
Sunday afternoon. Otherwise main impact will be thickening cloud
cover through the day Sunday. DMH

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Thursday. Long-term is 
trending towards a wetter and more active pattern. An upper-level 
low will lift across Nevada, drawing in some moisture into southeast 
Idaho. Initially it appears the precip will be confined to the 
higher elevations of the Southeastern Highlands. The upper low will 
open up and continue northeastward ahead of a strong Pacific trough. 
As the Pacific trough advances inland, precip will overspread most 
of the forecast area starting Wednesday night. Thursday looks to be 
wet and windy as a surface cold front pushes through the area. 


.AVIATION...Dominant feature continues to be the upper ridge 
building in over the PAC NW. Expect VFR conditions to prevail 
through the period. Hinsberger