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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Philadelphia/Mt Holly (PHI)

                            
000
FXUS61 KPHI 161734
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1234 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure off the New England coast this morning will
move northeastward, reaching Nova Scotia this evening. High 
pressure is expected to build into our region from the west for 
Saturday and Sunday. A cold front approaching from the northwest
is anticipated to arrive on Sunday night with another cold 
front following on Tuesday. High pressure is expected for 
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The coastal storm continues to wrap up and pull away from the
region. Rains/snow showers N/E are diminishing. Headlines have 
been taken down. Gusty W to NW winds up to 30 mph will continue 
into the afternoon. 

We are expecting a decrease in cloud cover today as the storm 
moves farther away from our region.

Maximum temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 40s, with
readings not getting above the 30s in the elevated terrain of 
the Poconos and far northern New Jersey.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
Dry air will continue to build into our region from the west 
for tonight. We are anticipating a mostly clear sky along with 
a west wind around 5 to 10 MPH.

Low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 20s to 
the lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We move into a relatively quieter pattern following the coastal
storm. The weekend looks fairly tranquil.

The strong area of low pressure associated with the coastal 
storm that has contributed to the first real blast of winter 
weather will continue to move away to our northeast, leading to
a cool, but fall-like stretch of weather Saturday and Sunday. 
Cloud cover to the north across the Poconos and northern New 
Jersey Saturday will slowly build southward through the weekend,
but conditions will remain dry. A subtle cold front/surface 
trough will move across the area Saturday afternoon, but we will
remain dry across the forecast area. While highs will still be 
about ten degrees below average, it will feel nice compared to 
today's well-below average high temperatures.

A cold front is expected to reach our region on Sunday night.
There may be some light snow and rain showers with the feature 
from Sunday into Monday, mainly in eastern Pennsylvania, and in 
northern and central New Jersey. High pressure should return for
the middle of the new week, building just to our south. 

The normal high temperatures for the period range from the 
middle 40s in the elevated terrain of the Poconos to the middle 
50s on the coastal plain. Highs will remain on the cool side 
throughout the area next week, with Monday likely being the 
warmest day ahead of the cold front with highs ranging from the 
upper 30s in the Poconos to low 50s over southern Delaware. 
Highs look remain generally below 50 across the forecast area 
throughout the remainder of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, 
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Lingering MVFR across the terminals with some daytime SC
developing across the area. Improvement to VFR is expected after
21z or 22z in most areas. West northwest wind 15 to 25 knots 
with gusts into the 30s early then settling back later this 
afternoon. 

Tonight...VFR, mainly clear. West wind 5 to 10 knots.

OUTLOOK... 
Saturday-Saturday night...VFR conditions.

Sunday-Monday...VFR conditions expected with a chance of 
showers.

Monday night-Tuesday...Generally VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
The last Gale on delaware bat was lowered and a SCA flag issued
until daybreak Saturday. 

A Gale Warning is in effect until 4:00 PM for the coastal waters
of New Jersey and Delaware. Wind speeds will be slow to decrease
as the strong area of low pressure moves northeastward and away
from our region. The wind direction on our waters will settle 
into the west northwest.

OUTLOOK... 
Saturday-Tuesday...Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels with west-northwest winds 10-15 knots.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The storm surge increased to 3+ feet along the central and 
northern parts of the New Jersey coast out ahead of the coastal 
storm overnight. As a result, there was minor coastal flooding 
with some localized moderate flooding.

Fortunately, the astronomical tides are quite low as we are at 
the first quarter phase of the moon. If the 3+ foot surge took 
place around the time of a new or full moon, we would have been 
experiencing moderate to major flooding.

The overnight high tide should be the only cycle of concern. 
The wind is forecast to be westerly for this afternoon's high 
tide, pushing water away from the coast.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Iovino
Near Term...Iovino/Po
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Davis/Iovino
Aviation...Iovino/Robertson/po
Marine...Iovino/Robertson/po
Tides/Coastal Flooding...