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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Pendleton, OR (PDT)

FXUS66 KPDT 211115 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
415 AM PDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Updated aviation discussion

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night. Upper level trough
which resulted in significant rain the past few days has now 
moved off to the east. A ridge of high pressure is building into 
the Pacific northwest. Satellite shows most of the cloudiness has 
dissipated or moved into Idaho. Some remaining clouds over the 
northeast Oregon mountains this morning otherwise mostly sunny 
today and warmer. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. The ridge will 
provide mainly clear skies tonight. A short wave and warm front 
will then move through the ridge later Monday into Tuesday. Most 
of the precipitation will pass to the north of the forecast area 
however showers are likely for the Cascades with a chance for the 
Blues. Otherwise increasing mid and high level clouds late Monday 
with mostly cloudy conditions Mon night into Tue. Warmer these 
days despite the cloud cover with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Westerly flow aloft increases Tue and will result in locally 
breezy winds. 94

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Initially a ridge will be 
over the Pacific Northwest Wednesday through Thursday morning which 
will ensure mostly sunny and dry weather. Models differ by Thursday 
afternoon as the GFS has a trough approaching the coast and 
developing a more unstable southwesterly flow while the ECMWF has 
the disturbance much further offshore and keeps a westerly flow. The 
ECMWF would be dry while the GFS develops a few showers over 
northeast Oregon. Have added a slight chance of showers to Wallowa 
county in the late afternoon with the rest of the area dry. On 
Friday, the GFS brings the trough ashore and develops more extensive 
showers over the mountains and a few thunderstorms over northeast 
Oregon while the ECMWF maintains a dry westerly flow. Have leaned 
towards the GFS with a slight chance of showers over the mountains 
and a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms from the 
Ochoco-John Day Highlands northeast into Wallowa county. In the wake 
of the trough on Saturday and Sunday, the GFS joins the ECMWF in 
having a west to northwest flow over the area with enough moisture 
that both models have a slight chance of upslope showers in the 
mountains while the rest of the area remains dry. Temperatures will 
be generally in the 60s and lower 70s though cooling to the mid 50s 
to mid 60s by next Sunday. Perry


.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 
hours. TAF sites will have mainly SKC through 00Z then FEW-SCT 
cirrus above 20K feet will drift over the area through 12Z tomorrow 
morning. KDLS will have 10 to 20 kts winds with some higher gusts 
this afternoon and early evening. KRDM and KBDN will have 10 to 15 
kt winds with gusts to 20 kts this afternoon and early evening. 
Otherwise winds will remain below 12 kts. Perry


PDT  66  40  69  49 /   0   0   0  10 
ALW  68  42  69  52 /   0   0   0  10 
PSC  73  43  74  53 /   0   0   0  10 
YKM  70  42  72  49 /   0   0   0  10 
HRI  72  41  72  51 /   0   0   0  10 
ELN  65  40  67  47 /   0   0   0  20 
RDM  64  32  69  44 /   0   0   0  10 
LGD  61  35  66  45 /   0   0   0  10 
GCD  62  35  66  42 /   0   0   0  10 
DLS  68  42  71  50 /   0   0   0  20