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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Pendleton, OR (PDT)

                            
000
FXUS66 KPDT 170931
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
231 AM PDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. Zonal flow will be present
through the end of the work week keeping temperatures at or below
normal. While no strong shortwaves are expected to affect the 
area, scattered showers will remain possible along the crests of 
the Cascades beginning this afternoon and will continue into 
Thursday morning. A few stray showers will also be possible in the
Blue Mountains late this evening although chances remain very 
low. One final shortwave is expected to pass north of the forecast
area through the day on Friday bringing rather cool temperatures 
for this time of year. With limited moisture, precipitation is not
expected. Gusty winds will be possible both this 
afternoon/evening as well as again on Thursday afternoon/evening. 
While winds will remain below advisory criteria, a few gusts 
between 25-35mph are possible through the Columbia River Gorge and
parts of the Kittitas Valley. Richards


.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday. Models in good 
agreement with overall pattern. Westerly flow will dominate the area 
through Saturday as an elongated upper level trough slowly makes its 
way through the region.  A building upper level ridge and an upper 
level low west of Vancouver Island will result in general south to 
southwest upper level flow over the region through the remainder of 
the extend period. The GFS shows a more amplified pattern producing 
a more southerly component. This would allow enough mid level 
moisture for isolated late afternoon/early evening convection 
beginning Tuesday. The ECMWF shows a less amplified pattern which 
keeps the flow more southwesterly.  This would keep the convective 
threat east of our CWA.  Most of the GFS Ensemble members indicate a 
more convective pattern too.  At this time will only go with a few 
afternoon/evening buildups Tuesday and Wednesday.  However, this 
pattern will need to be closely monitored as the onset of such a 
pattern could produce some high-based, dry thunderstorms by the 
middle of next week. Temperatures will warm quickly to above normal 
Sunday and remain above normal through the rest of the period. Earle 
 
&&

.AVIATION...Previous discussion...06Z TAFs...Scattered mid level 
clouds will continue this evening before dissipating overnight. 
Scattered to broken high level clouds above 20K feet will be present 
overnight. Tomorrow afternoon and evening scattered to broken 
ceilings will return at 4-8K feet with scattered to broken mid 
clouds at 10-15K feet. Winds will remain below 12 kts tonight. Winds 
will increase again after 15Z tomorrow morning and reach 10-20 kts 
with gusts to 30 kts at all TAF sites from late morning through 
early evening before decreasing after 04Z. Perry



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  83  56  79  48 /  10  10  10   0 
ALW  84  60  83  53 /  10  20  20   0 
PSC  87  60  84  54 /  10  10   0   0 
YKM  82  53  79  49 /  10  10   0   0 
HRI  85  59  83  52 /  10  10   0   0 
ELN  72  52  71  50 /  20  20   0   0 
RDM  81  49  79  44 /   0  10  10   0 
LGD  81  54  76  48 /  10  20  20   0 
GCD  83  53  81  47 /  10  10  10   0 
DLS  77  60  77  53 /  10  20  10   0 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

75/81/81