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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Norman, OK (OUN)

                            
000
FXUS64 KOUN 210355
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of rain and thunderstorms will move southwest to northeast
across southwestern and central Oklahoma until before sunrise.
MVFR ceilings are expected at times tonight and more generally
Saturday morning. An upper level storm will increase rain and
thunderstorm chances in western Oklahoma later Saturday afternoon
and evening. A front approaching from Kansas will bring rain 
chances to northern Oklahoma from early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Thunderstorms will affect OKC and OUN TAFs into mid-evening and
SPS and LAW later this evening. Most of the thunder may abate
overnight, but ceilings at MVFR conditions will be scattered. 
South winds will be gusty in western Oklahoma Saturday 
thunderstorms chances increase in western and northern Oklahoma 
later Saturday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
With the exception of one decent rain event, the first three 
weeks of September 2019 have been dry with above average 
temperatures. Rain and thunderstorm chances will certainly improve
as a western trough translates eastward through this weekend. 
PW's will remain near the max moving average (SPC sounding climo 
page), so there is a concern of heavy rainfall and flooding over 
the next 48-60 hours. 

Southwest flow will increase across the Panhandles and western
Oklahoma today, as part of the western trough moves northeast 
across the Rockies and northern Plains. At least scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop over western/northern 
Texas through the afternoon/evening with a general movement to the
northeast. Additional storms are also expected across western 
Texas. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be the main concerns 
with the stronger storms this afternoon/tonight. Showers and 
storms across south central and southeast Oklahoma will certainly 
pose a risk of heavy rainfall with torrential downpours. Perhaps 
after this evening, this area will be influenced more by an upper
ridge to our east. 

As the western trough continues east over the weekend, rain chances
will remain relatively high. For Saturday, higher chances will be
across western and northern Oklahoma and western north Texas. 
Perhaps a better connection to tropical Pacific moisture will 
occur with an embedded wave. A cold front will also begin to move 
closer to northern Oklahoma. Frontal precipitation will mainly 
impact areas to our north during the day Saturday. However, 
Saturday night into Sunday chances will increase as the 
front/outflow moves into northern Oklahoma. Again, heavy rainfall 
and flooding will be a concern. 

Somewhat drier air is expected to move into at least the northwest
1/2 of the state Sunday afternoon into early Monday. This 
combined with weak shortwave ridging may bring a period of mainly
dry weather. 

Another trough will begin the approach the area by Tuesday.  Return
flow ahead of this feature will likely result in at least widely 
scattered showers and storms. How quickly east the next trough 
will move is somewhat uncertain. Therefore will keep rain chances 
fairly low at this time. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  83  71  81 /  60  30  50  60 
Hobart OK         71  87  69  84 /  80  40  60  50 
Wichita Falls TX  72  89  71  87 /  70  30  40  30 
Gage OK           69  88  66  83 /  60  30  20  30 
Ponca City OK     71  82  70  79 /  40  50  60  80 
Durant OK         71  89  71  89 /  70  10  10  40 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/15/15