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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Norman, OK (OUN)

FXUS64 KOUN 230816

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
316 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Cold front making slow progress south this morning will continue 
to move toward the Red River before stalling out this afternoon. 
This boundary will be the main focus for any shower/thunderstorm 
development today. 

This front will lift back north tonight into Tuesday as lee 
cyclogenesis occurs in response to ejecting shortwave. More 
widespread showers/thunderstorms expected to develop northward 
during this time as as waa/isentropic lift increase. A few 
strong/severe storms appear possible by Tuesday afternoon as 
modest instability develops along with more favorable wind fields.

By Wednesday, another front will drop south out of Kansas into
northern Oklahoma as shortwave moves across northern/central
Plains and will provide another focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Especially across northern into central Oklahoma. A
few severe storms appear possible. This front is expected to 
stall across central Oklahoma Thursday morning before quickly 
lifting back north.

Meanwhile, a closed low over the southwest part of the country 
will open up and eject east/northeast into the Plain states by 
Friday. Although exact timing remains in doubt, at least one model
depicts a spring-like set up with a surface front dropping into 
northern Oklahoma with a dryline taking shape across western 
Oklahoma southward into north Texas. Again models are showing 
modest amounts of instability in the moist sector by Friday 
afternoon to go along with favorable wind profile for severe 

This front will continue to move slowly south across parts of the
area into Saturday with rain chances continuing. Models have
backed off the westward expansion of upper ridge that develops 
across the southeast part of the country by the end of next week. 
This keeps a more active period going for the foreseeable future 
across the southern Plains. 


Oklahoma City OK  84  69  83  69 /  10  40  60  20 
Hobart OK         87  69  87  69 /  20  40  40  20 
Wichita Falls TX  87  70  86  70 /  40  40  50  20 
Gage OK           88  65  91  66 /   0  20  20  20 
Ponca City OK     82  67  83  69 /  10  20  40  30 
Durant OK         88  71  86  71 /  40  40  60  20