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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Norman, OK (OUN)

                            
000
FXUS64 KOUN 162110
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
310 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast is the front that is expected to 
move into the area tomorrow, and the potential for light 
precipitation tomorrow night. This precipitation could be in the 
form of freezing drizzle for areas that fall below freezing before 
the precipitation ends. 

A positively tilted shortwave trough moving southeast across the 
northern Rockies will force a cold front south into our area 
tomorrow. An anafrontal light precipitation scenario may develop 
given the depth of low-level saturated indicated in the model 
soundings. This may begin as early as tomorrow evening across the 
north. This should be brief before low-level dry cP air mass dries
near-surface layer sufficiently to end precipitation early Sunday
morning. Further south, near and south of the front, weak 
instability in the boundary layer below capping could support some
light shallow showers tomorrow night. This is where the best 
chance of measurable precipitation will be. Across northwest 
Oklahoma, forecast soundings show minimum temperatures in the 
saturated layer of the sounding around -8C which could result in 
ice nucleation and some flurries or light snow. Amounts with all 
of the drizzle, light snow/flurries across the northwest half of 
the area will be very light and probably non-measurable for many 
locations. Impacts should be limited given warm road surface 
temperatures, although in the worst case scenario where slightly 
heavier precipitation (resulting in a few hundreths of an inch of 
precipitation) occur for a couple hours where temperatures are 
below freezing, a few bridges and overpasses could become slick. 
This isn't a likely scenario and if it occurred would probably be 
confined to north-central Oklahoma. 

The next trough comes Wednesday, but moisture return is limited and 
only low precipitation probabilities were assigned to southern 
portions of the area. Models diverge some toward late week when 
another trough of varying amplitudes in the models comes through. 
This would occur with more moisture, and if the more amplified 
scenarios play out, greater precipitation chances may need to be 
included.

BRB/JT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  41  53  31  38 /   0   0  20  10 
Hobart OK         39  50  29  41 /   0   0  10   0 
Wichita Falls TX  41  60  35  44 /   0   0  20  10 
Gage OK           37  40  24  39 /   0  10  10   0 
Ponca City OK     39  47  30  38 /   0   0  20  10 
Durant OK         43  65  41  45 /   0   0  40  20 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/12/01