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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Norman, OK (OUN)

                            
000
FXUS64 KOUN 182324 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
624 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.AVIATION...
19/00Z TAFs. VFR conditions with gusty southerly winds will
continue. Gusts expected to subside with decoupling and slight
backing this evening, but return after 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

..Heat Continues...

The upper level ridge will continue over the area for the next few 
days, keeping the forecast hot and precipitation free through 
Saturday. Will maintain a heat advisory for Friday across much of 
northern and central Oklahoma.

After that, the ridge begins to move off to the west, allowing a 
shortwave and front to come down the plains. Low PoPs and cooler 
temperatures will enter the forecast area late Saturday night and 
make their way southward with the aforementioned features through 
Tuesday. 

Timing of the shortwave (and thus associated precipitation) 
is still a bit uncertain with the ECMWF lagging 6 to 12 hours behind 
the GFS and Canadian (the 12Z run of the ECMWF is actually 
significantly faster than the prior run which was 12 to 24 hours 
behind the GFS). The majority of GFS ensemble members also seem 
slower than the operational GFS (though not quite as slow as the 
ECMWF). Opted for a middle of the road approach as models start to 
trend closer together.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  97  78  96 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         78 100  77  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  78 100  78  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           77  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     79  98  78  97 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         76  94  76  94 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-
     008-012-013-018>020-025-026.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ006>008-
     011>013-017>020-025-026-030>032.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006-011-017-023-
     024-027>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

23/11