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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Norman, OK (OUN)

FXUS64 KOUN 252057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
357 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

For late this afternoon/evening, isolated to scattered strong to 
severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the eastern 
Texas panhandle. These thunderstorms would move east-southeastward
into southwest Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas. 

Steep mid-level lapses, >30 knots effective bulk shear, and large
CAPE in the hail-growth zone would be favorable for large hail. 
Localized damaging wind gusts are also possible--especially if 
enough storms develop for a complex to develop. Farther east, 
isolated to scattered storms may continue across east-central 
Oklahoma, but the risk of severe weather is lower. 

For Sunday through Wednesday, northwest/northern Oklahoma will 
maintain a low to moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms
for the possibility of any remnant High Plains convection and/or 
influence from shortwave troughs forecast to eject into the 
Central Plains. This area will be on the northern periphery of 
the mid-level ridge. There is an outside chance one of these 
complexes could affect areas farther to the south (such as central
Oklahoma) the middle of next week as a higher-amplitude shortwave
trough ejects into the Plains. Otherwise, most locations should 
remain hot and dry. 

Beyond Tuesday, both the 25/12Z GFS and ECMWF still indicate that
a hot pattern will develop across the Southern Plains; however, 
the latest guidance is less amplified with the mid-level trough 
(with a lower magnitude). Even so, near record temperatures are
still expected toward the end of next week. 



Oklahoma City OK  68  92  70  92 /  20  10   0   0 
Hobart OK         69  96  71  95 /  20   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  72  97  73  96 /  20   0   0   0 
Gage OK           65  97  68  94 /  20   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     66  93  69  93 /  20  10   0   0 
Durant OK         71  90  71  93 /  30  20  10   0