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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Norman, OK (OUN)

                            
292 
FXUS64 KOUN 220843
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
343 AM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Periods of rain expected to continue near the Red River and across
far southeast Oklahoma, northeast of very slow moving surface 
cyclone where low to mid level moisture advection will continue 
through at least midday today. Precipitable water values still 
anomalously high, so we expect what rain persists to be fairly 
efficient in accumulations. With that being said, we question the 
validity of most models, especially the operational and high-res 
WRF, where additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches is 
forecast. The latest few iterations of the RAP13 look much more in
line with reality where perhaps an inch or so of accumualtion
could occur. In areas where areal flooding continues and 
additional rains are expected, we will keep the Flood Watch going 
for good measure. This will take the southern and eastern portions
of the OKC metro out of the watch.

Low pops will continue into Monday across areas mainly east of
I-35 with proximity to moisture and weak cyclonic shear zone. High
amplitude wave moving through central and northern plains Monday
and Tuesday still expected to result in a brief frontal intrusion
late in the day Tuesday, which will allow pops to increase Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Certainly won't have a repeat of record
rains, but any rains that occur over the southern half of Oklahoma
into northern Texas will aggravate flooding issues. Medium range
model solutions diverge a bit thereafter, especially in regards to
next cold front. With a delayed arrival, perhaps Saturday night 
or Sunday, we lowered pops Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  60  76  64 /  20  10  10  10 
Hobart OK         73  57  79  63 /  10   0   0  10 
Wichita Falls TX  68  63  77  66 /  60  30  20  10 
Gage OK           73  50  80  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     76  54  80  63 /   0   0   0  10 
Durant OK         68  62  72  66 / 100  70  40  30 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ032-041>043-
     046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

12/11