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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Spokane, WA (OTX)

                            
674 
FXUS66 KOTX 181138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
438 AM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Dry and cool weather is expected through Wednesday. Also expect 
chilly morning temperatures with patchy frost possible in sheltered
valleys. A wetter storm system will bring increasing rain chances
late in the week. Conditions remain cool over the weekend with a
chance for at least mountain showers. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday: A long wave trough will remain over the
area but with limited moisture resulting in dry conditions and
slightly below normal temperatures. The only exception is a weak
wave that moves over the N Washington Cascades Wednesday
afternoon. This combined with daytime heating could produce a few
showers or thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon in the mountains
surrounding Lake Chelan and the Methow Valley. JW

Wednesday night through Monday...A progressive and unsettled  
weather pattern featuring a series of disturbances brushing or
transiting the region will prevail through the extended period. 
The polar storm track will reside near or over the region bringing
multiple opportunities for mountain showers...with the basin 
under the highest threat of showers during the transit of a cold 
front Friday night and again with a possible deeper upper low 
transit on or about Sunday night or Monday. There are model 
differences regarding these two stronger systems...and have hedged
forecast toward the GFS model which seems to be the most 
consistent run-to run...and is the wetter model...however the 
confidence level with the timing and character of these 
systems...particularly the Sunday night/Monday wave is rather low.
There is high confidence however of continued cooler than normal 
temperatures in this flow regime as well as fairly high confidence
of at least mountain shower threats almost every day. /Fugazzi 

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Occasional high clouds are expected through tonight with
light winds and VFR conditions persisting at all TAF sites. A few
fog patches are expected in the northern valleys through 16z this
morning around Bonners Ferry and Sandpoint.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        69  44  69  46  65  46 /   0   0   0  10  10  10 
Coeur d'Alene  69  42  69  44  63  43 /   0   0   0  10  20  10 
Pullman        68  38  67  43  64  44 /   0   0   0  10  10  10 
Lewiston       74  46  73  47  71  48 /   0   0   0   0  10  10 
Colville       71  38  71  43  67  42 /   0   0   0  20  20  30 
Sandpoint      67  38  67  41  60  40 /   0   0   0  10  40  20 
Kellogg        66  40  65  41  59  40 /   0   0   0  10  30  10 
Moses Lake     74  39  75  44  71  46 /   0   0   0   0  10  10 
Wenatchee      73  49  74  50  70  50 /   0   0   0  10  10  30 
Omak           74  46  74  47  69  47 /   0   0  10  10  10  30 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$