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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Spokane, WA (OTX)

                            
825 
FXUS66 KOTX 191746
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1046 AM PDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will cool slightly each day going into the weekend, 
with readings expected to be near normal by Saturday. Conditions 
will remain dry with locally breezy winds expected near the 
Cascades through Friday then northern mountain valleys over the 
weekend. The dry weather looks to persist into next week, with 
the potential for another strong warming trend. 


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: Dry, locally breezy conditions continue, 
with some fire weather concerns, but with more seasonal
temperatures. The region will remain in a west/southwest flow with
low pressure over northern BC tracking toward the WA border 
through the period. A very dry atmosphere will keep only limited 
thunderstorm chances near the Canadian border as impulses slip 
by. The cross-Cascade gradient and afternoon mixing will produce 
some breezy conditions, especially over central WA. Though 
guidance is not in solid agreement that wind speeds will achieve 
strict criteria, they will be close enough. So combined with low 
afternoon RH's comparable or slightly lower than recent days, red 
flag warnings continue. We will have to contend with some smoke 
and haze from regional wildfires, the most robust which are in 
southern BC and Oregon with more localized smoke from the fires in
WA and ID. /Cote'

Friday night through Monday...An upper level low will slowly track
through central British Columbia Friday night, through Alberta on
Saturday, with the low heading east across the Canadian Plains 
Sunday and Monday. Model guidance is also similar showing a 
secondary low dropping south down the B.C./Alberta border Sunday 
night and Monday. No major changes in the model guidance that 
shows the moisture and dynamics remaining well north of the 
Canadian border. So the big impacts will be temperatures cooling 
back to seasonal normals with highs mainly in the 80s. The surface
pressure gradient will shift to northerly and tighten some 
Saturday afternoon through Sunday with winds down the Okanogan 
valley in the 10-15 mph range and gusts as high as 25 mph. The 
atmosphere will remain very dry with relative humidity in that 
15-25 percent range. On Monday a short wave disturbance will 
wraparound the parent low. The ECMWF does show some limited 
moisture brushing the north Idaho Panhandle Monday afternoon. At 
the time the forecast will be kept dry, but this will be monitored
as there could easily be some isolated lighting up near the 
border. High pressure will begin to the strengthen over the 4 
corners region as well which will allow temperatures to 4-7 
degrees over Sunday. 

Tuesday through Friday...The 4 corners high shifts a bit to the
west and strengthens through this period allowing the the ridge to
move north. Temperatures will be on the rise with highs well into
the 90s and a few of the warmer locations breaking the century
mark. No relief from the dry conditions in sight and over night
recoveries will be poor at best. Model guidance is showing a
couple of weak waves trying to move through the ridge. This time
of the year these waves typically get sheared apart as they move
into the ridge. But this will have to be monitored closely,
because if a wave does manage to get through the ridge or undercut
the ridge it would likely kick off convection, and that would
increase fire concern across the region. Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A dry westerly flow continues, even as low pressure in 
BC drops toward the WA border overnight and into tomorrow. The 
dry atmosphere will allow VFR conditions to prevail. In addition
to some flat cumulus there may be some elevated smoke from
regional wildfires. Otherwise winds will remain breezy near KEAT
with afternoon gustiness elsewhere. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        85  56  83  54  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Coeur d'Alene  85  54  83  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Pullman        83  52  81  50  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Lewiston       93  59  90  58  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Colville       87  54  84  48  82  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Sandpoint      84  53  80  48  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Kellogg        82  54  79  50  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Moses Lake     90  54  88  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Wenatchee      87  57  85  57  85  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Omak           90  55  87  53  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this 
     evening for East Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 
     677)-East Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-
     East Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676). 

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for East 
     Washington Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East 
     Washington Northern Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East 
     Washington South Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 676). 


&&

$$