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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by New York, NY (OKX)

                            
000
FXUS61 KOKX 161437
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1037 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push through the region today followed by 
high pressure through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track with just a few minor adjustments to reflect
latest observations. Otherwise, a weak cold front moves across
the area this afternoon. Isolated light showers will be 
possible at any time into the afternoon. Rain amounts will 
remain light as the system is lacking in moisture and forcing. 
The trend heading into the later afternoon hours is for any 
showers to be confined to the southern half of the area as the 
front moves further to the south. 

High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than Sunday with the 
increase in clouds. Light winds will also limit mixing so 
temperatures will stay in the mid 70s to near 80.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean 
beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering light showers will diminish early this evening. 

High pressure will follow behind the front and despite a mostly 
clear sky, areas around NYC will have slightly more wind and 
radiational cooling will be more limited. Where winds will go light, 
expect temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 50s, mainly for 
the Pine Barrens of Long Island and the interior. Locations closer 
to the cost will stay in the upper 50s to around 60, which is below 
normal.

Tuesday will feel like Fall as a northeasterly flow sets up 
around high pressure and lower dewpoints move into the region. 
Highs will remain in the 70s during the day under a mostly sunny
sky.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean 
beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deterministic models and ensemble means indicate the synoptic 
pattern in the long term will be dominated by ridging aloft and at 
the surface. This will lead to dry conditions into the upcoming 
weekend. 

A longwave trough over the Canadian Maritimes extending down across 
the Western Atlantic will be slow to progress eastward through 
Wednesday. The trough gradually moves further into the Atlantic the 
end of the week into the weekend. At the same time, an anomalous 
ridge will dominate over much of the eastern CONUS. The axis of this 
ridge should lie over the northeast Friday into the weekend. Surface 
high pressure ridges down from New England Tuesday night through 
Thursday. The core of the high shifts to our southwest on Friday and 
then should remain in a similar location through the weekend. This 
pattern will help to take Humberto well out to sea through the week. 
The only indirect impact we could see here are strong rip currents 
at Atlantic ocean beaches and rough surf due to an increasing 
easterly swell late in the week. Refer to the National Hurricane 
Center for official forecast information on Humberto.

The strong ridging should prevent any significant cloud cover.
However, NE-E onshore flow on Wednesday and a strong inversion 
around 5-6 kft could trap moisture and bring mostly cloudy skies. 
Have bumped up sky cover to indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies, 
with highest amount of clouds near the coast. Forecast soundings 
indicate the inversion weakens Wednesday night and mostly clear 
conditions should then prevail into the weekend. 

Temperatures are likely be a few degrees below normal in the upper 
60s and low 70s on Wednesday due to the increased cloud cover. Below 
normal temperatures in the low 70s continue into Thursday, then 
return to seasonable levels on Friday in the middle and upper 70s. 
The warming trend continues into the weekend as highs will be in the 
upper 70s to near 80 for most locations except low to middle 80s 
possible in the NYC/NJ metro area Friday through Sunday with 
high temperatures warmer than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak cold front just south of the terminals this morning will
remain in close proximity through this afternoon. High pressure
then builds in from the north tonight.

Mainly a VFR forecast with a brief MVFR ceiling possible at
KSWF. Any rain will be light and brief.

Winds are likely to become highly variable along the coast late
this morning into this afternoon with potential seabreeze
influence. Elsewhere, a NW-NE flow at less than 10 kt. Winds 
then shift back to the NE again tonight at all terminals at 5-10
kt.

  ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low confidence in the timing of wind shifts
into this evening, although speeds are expected to remain 10 kt
or less.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies 
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Low chance of a late day seabreeze.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies 
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Possible seabreeze from the SE this 
afternoon.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence in the timing of wind shifts
into this evening, although speeds are expected to remain 10 kt
or less.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in the timing of wind shifts
into this evening, although speeds are expected to remain 10 kt
or less.

KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence in the timing of wind shifts
into this evening, although speeds are expected to remain 10 kt
or less.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR with high pressure in control. 
.Thursday and Friday...VFR. Can't rule out late night/early
morning radiation fog at the inland terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through tonight. 
Occasional gusts near 20 kt are expected late tonight, mainly 
for the ocean. Winds diminish through the day on Tuesday.

Winds Tuesday night through Friday will remain below 25 kt.
Ocean seas will build Wednesday into Friday and an SCA will likely 
be needed. Long period swells from Humberto are forecast to increase 
during this time, helping to build ocean seas above 5 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts through the end of the week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CB/DS
NEAR TERM...CB/BC/DS
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...FEB/DW
MARINE...CB/DS
HYDROLOGY...CB/DS
EQUIPMENT...//