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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Nashville, TN (OHX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KOHX 231727
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Frontal boundary located upstream, just south of PAH. This feature
should continue moving southeast and we may see some more weak
convective development along it. GFS and Hrrr solutions both
expected redevelopment around 18z. 

Will go ahead and keep current fcst as is. High temps appear to be
on track. 

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A cold front will move through the terminals this afternoon and
evening. A batch of light showers is moving east of MQY now and
could impact CSV in the next couple of hours. High res models
develop another line of showers just ahead of the front this
afternoon. Like the current activity, the showers are expected to
have minimal impacts at the terminal sites. Winds will shift to
the N behind the front and be in the 5-10 kt range. Winds will
relax overnight before increasing to around 5-8 kts out of the NE
tomorrow mid morning. Models are hinting that patchy fog and low 
clouds could develop at CSV near dawn tomorrow, so went ahead and
included a period of MVFR conditions at the terminal.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........Reagan