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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Francisco Bay Area, CA (MTR)

                            
000
FXUS66 KMTR 212120
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
220 PM PDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure building over the region will result in 
a warming and drying trend through midweek. Temperatures will warm 
well above seasonal averages by Tuesday with weak offshore flow. 
Temperatures will then moderate and cool slightly late in the week 
as the ridge of high pressure weakens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 02:19 PM PDT Sunday...Locally breezy 
conditions persist over the region this afternoon with 
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s near the coast and 
middle 60s to lower 70s inland. While sky conditions are mainly 
clear for much of the region, low clouds are once again developing
from the Monterey Peninsula southward along the coast to around 
Point Sur. Looking for low clouds to return to some coastal areas 
tonight, especially around the Monterey Bay, while high pressure 
building aloft limits inland intrusion. 

A more robust warming trend will begin on Monday and continue 
through the first half of the week as the aforementioned high 
pressure strengthens over the region. Look for more widespread 70s 
and 80s for the interior with upper 60s to lower 70s near the coast 
on Monday. Additional warming is likely for Tuesday when some 
interior locations could reach into the lower 90s. Weak offshore 
flow will also push warmer conditions all the way to the coast by 
Tuesday where we could see middle 70s to even lower 80s for 
locations such as Santa Cruz. While these warm conditions are likely 
to persist over inland areas on Wednesday, the forecast models do 
cool conditions slightly near the coast. Will have to monitor for 
the return of the marine layer and its influences across coastal 
areas by midweek. 

Temperatures trend slightly cooler for the latter half of the week 
as the ridge flattens and shifts inland in advance of an approaching 
mid/upper level trough. The operational forecast models have started 
to show an upper level low undercutting the ridge and brining some 
light precipitation to southern California by the upcoming weekend. 
Ensemble members are also hinting at very light QPF (a few 
hundredths of an inch or so) over the Central Coast and southern 
California by day 7 and 8 of the forecast period. With very low 
confidence at this time, will keep dry conditions in the official 
forecast but will continue to monitor trends in the coming days. 
Regardless, not expecting widespread rainfall or major impacts to 
the region. 

&&

.AVIATION...As of 11:15 AM PDT Sunday...Predominately VFR through
the day, localized IFR/MVFR overnight into Monday morning along
the coast. A few low to mid level clouds will linger through the 
morning but dissipate into the afternoon. Breezy to locally gusty 
onshore winds again today, though weaker than yesterday. 

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Breezy to occasionally gusty onshore 
winds this afternoon. SCT clouds 1000-1500 ft possible late
overnight into Monday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the afternoon. Marine layer
return expected later into the evening and overnight. Some models
bringing a little bit of drizzle to the coast with the marine
layer early Monday morning (prior and up to sunrise). Breezy
onshore winds this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...as of 11:14 AM PDT Sunday...Gusty northwest winds across
the waters today. Occasional gale force gusts are possible through
tonight. These gusty winds will generate steep fresh swell that is
hazardous for small craft vessels. Northwest winds dissipate
somewhat into midweek. Northwest seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Mry Bay until 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP

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