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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Francisco Bay Area, CA (MTR)

                            
000
FXUS66 KMTR 202054
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
154 PM PDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will begin to build over the region on 
Sunday resulting a dry weather conditions and slightly warmer 
temperatures. A more noticeable warming trend will develop early 
next week and extend through midweek with temperatures well above 
seasonal averages. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 01:54 PM PDT Saturday...Breezy northwesterly 
flow in wake of a frontal passage has resulted in abundant cloud 
cover from the San Francisco Peninsula inland into the East Bay 
and across the Monterey Bay Region. Meanwhile, only partly cloudy 
conditions over the North Bay has allowed temperatures to warm in 
to the middle/upper 60s while many other locations to the south 
are a good 5 to as much as 15 degrees cooler compared to 
yesterday. Look for low clouds to linger in these areas into the 
overnight with temperatures falling into the 40s inland to lower 
50s near the coast. 

High pressure will then begin to build over the region on Sunday 
with a gradual drying and warming trend likely to extend into 
midweek. Daytime temperatures on Sunday will warm into the 60s near 
the coast to 70s inland, generally near seasonal averages. However, 
by Tuesday and Wednesday of the upcoming week, widespread 80s are 
likely inland with 70s reaching all the way to the coast. Cannot 
even rule out a few of the warmer interior locations of Monterey and 
San Benito Counties reaching into the lower/middle 90s on Wednesday. 
As the ridge of high pressure builds aloft, mainly clear sky 
conditions and weak offshore flow are also expected.

Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday as the ridge flattens and 
shifts inland result in zonal flow aloft. Additional cooling is 
forecast for Friday and into next weekend as a mid/upper level 
trough pushes into the Pacific Northwest. Overall, dry weather 
conditions are likely through the forecast period with the potential 
for the marine layer to return late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 11:00 AM PDT Saturday...A cold front swept
across the area earlier this morning, bringing coastal drizzle,
IFR to MVFR cigs, MVFR reductions in visibility, and gusty onshore
winds. In the wake of the front, except all but the gusty onshore
winds to dissipate this morning. Gusty onshore winds will persist
throughout the afternoon and potentially into the early evening. 
Reductions in visibility are possible overnight into sunrise 
Sunday but should mix out by 17-18Z SUN.

Vicinity of KSFO...Gusty west winds sust 25-30kt with gusts
30-40kt possible through 21-22Z SAT. Improving cigs from IFR to
MVFR then VFR through the afternoon, but lowering again overnight
into sunrise SUN.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Models show MVFR cigs persisting around
KMRY throughout the taf period though some temporary post frontal
clearing is possible. Breezy to occasionally gusty onshore winds
expected throughout the afternoon and into the evening. Lowering
ceilings overnight into early Sunday morning. Low cigs burnoff
around KSNS sooner.

&&

.MARINE...as of 10:55 AM PDT Saturday...A cold front is sweeping
through the waters from north to south this morning. Gusty
northwest winds will prevail across the waters as a result today.
Occasional gale force gusts are possible this late this morning
through the afternoon. These gusty winds will generate steep fresh
swell which is hazardous for small craft vessels. Moderate
northwest swell.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...SF Bay until 10 PM
             SCA...Mry Bay until 10 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP

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