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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Francisco Bay Area, CA (MTR)

FXUS66 KMTR 231130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
430 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to produce above average
temperatures through the remainder of the weekend, especially
inland. A distinct cooling trend is then forecast from Monday 
through Wednesday, resulting in much cooler temperatures by the 
middle of next week. 


.DISCUSSION...As of 2:57 AM PDT Sunday...The marine layer has 
compressed to under 1000 feet, per the Fort Ord profiler, and 
satellite imagery shows coastal low clouds from about San 
Francisco south, and locally extending into the Salinas Valley. 
Current surface observations show patchy fog mainly around the 
Monterey Bay, but hazy conditions are occurring at SFO and STS 
over the last hour. 

High temperatures today are expected to be similar to those on
Saturday, with 60s to lower 70s at the coast, to the lower to
middle 90s well inland. The upper level ridge will start to break
down on Monday as an upper trough off the coast of British 
Columbia begins to move to the southeast. This will ramp up the 
onshore flow by Monday afternoon, along with an increase in 
coastal low clouds, and a cooling trend will begin. This cooling
trend will continue through midweek, and by Wednesday, high 
temperatures are forecast to be as much as 20 degrees cooler than
those expected today. Temperatures are then expected to rebound a
bit late next week, but still remain at least slightly below 
normal as a broad upper trough remains near the West Coast. High
pressure to rebuild over the west by next weekend for warmer
temperatures once again. 

&& of 04:30 AM PDT Sunday...For 12z tafs. VFR
conditions expected today and this evening for most terminals. The
exception will be KMRY and KSNS which are both currently 
experiencing LIFR/VLIFR conditions. Low clouds and occasional fog 
will continue into the early morning around the Monterey Peninsula.
Generally light winds through the period turning onshore this 
afternoon 10-15 kt.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Light winds this morning increasing to
around 15 kt after 20z-21z. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Satellite imagery shows stratus over the
Monterey Bay and inland to the northern Salinas Valley. IFR to
VLIFR conditions due to low clouds and occasional fog until 
around 16z-18z. VFR conditions for the afternoon with generally
light winds. 

&& of 2:07 AM PDT Sunday...High pressure over the 
eastern Pacific and a trough over inland California will maintain 
gusty northwesterly winds over the northern outer waters. Expect 
generally light to moderate winds elsewhere. Winds will diminish 
across the waters Tuesday as high pressure weakens and low 
pressure sets up off the Pacific Northwest.


     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 9 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 5 PM




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