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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Morristown, TN (MRX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KMRX 150657
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
257 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...

Overall, conditions will be quiet through the short term period. 
It's hard to pinpoint the location of the cold front because it 
is so weak. Best guess is that it currently resides somewhere 
across the southern TN valley and up through the spine of the 
Appalachians in a SW to NE orientation. The front will continue to
slowly drift eastward while also becoming more diffuse over time.

The main concern early this morning is fog for areas that saw
precipitation Saturday evening. Any area that saw precip will
likely see fog with some areas potentially seeing some locally 
dense fog, most areas should be clear though. 

Drier air will continue to work it's way in behind the front with
northerly flow and afternoon RH values will dip down in the upper
20s to lower 30s with temperatures maxing out in the upper 80s to
near 90. There is a slight chance that an isolated shower or 
storm develops along the spine of the Appalachians and over 
southwest NC due to the weak front still in the vicinity but only 
a 15 to 20 POP is in place. Otherwise, plenty of sun today along 
with the aforementioned drier air. Tonight should be quite 
pleasant with clear skies and temps in the upper 50s to low 60s,
which is near normal.




.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)...

Generally dry conditions and above normal temperatures will 
continue to be the theme through the long term period as a high 
pressure ridge dominates the region. Not much change is needed 
from the previous forecast as the models have remained consistent.
The one feature that could bring a chance of rain to the area 
will be a shortwave trough dropping S-SE from the eastern Great 
Lakes to the southern Appalachians on Tuesday/Wednesday. Forecast 
soundings through this period remain moisture-starved but there 
may be enough instability in the higher elevations along the NC 
border to warrant a slight chance PoP. Above normal temperatures 
with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s in the Valley will 
persist.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             92  66  94  68 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  90  62  91  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       91  62  91  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              89  54  89  63 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

SR/DGS