## Prognostic Meteorological Discussion (PMD)

Issued by National Weather Service (NWS)

000 FXUS06 KWBC 211901 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussions for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks. NWS Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2019 There is no forecaster message written on weekends. Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate outlooks. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19880712 - 19590703 - 19990701 - 19910720 - 19770717 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19990704 - 19590702 - 19530722 - 19680721 - 19880712 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jul 27 - 31, 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A N W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jul 29 - Aug 04, 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A N W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 - ON AFOS AS NFDPMDMRD. $$